Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
757 FXUS62 KMHX 290806 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 406 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Typical summertime pattern will remain in place through early week with high pressure offshore and troughing inland. The next frontal system approaches the east coast mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Scattered seabreeze thunderstorms this afternoon - Heat indices peak around 100-105 degrees ENC continues to be influenced by high pressure over the western Atlantic which is bringing a very warm and humid airmass across the region. While we will be moderately unstable with SBCAPE expected to peak around 2000-2500 J/Kg, lack of shear and appreciable forcing will keep thunderstorm chances near climo, peaking around 20-30% this afternoon, with primary forcing from sea/sound breezes and any outflow boundaries that develop. Storms for the most part will remain below severe criteria but a few storms could produce strong wind gusts and small hail. Storms could also produce locally heavy rainfall with PW values around 1.75-2" and slow storm motions. Low level thicknesses change little over yesterday and expect highs in the low to mid 90s inland and mid 80s to around 90 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sunday... Storms are expected to wane fairly quickly this evening as we lose diurnal heating with mainly dry conditions through the rest of the overnight. Lows will be similar to previous nights in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2 AM Saturday... Key Messages - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat indices 100-105F every afternoon - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Wednesday increases rain chances Wednesday PM, and could bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Upper level ridge continues weakening, eventually shifting offshore, as highs persist in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely through Tuesday. The cumulative effect of several days with high heat indices (and little relief at night) is something for those working or spending much time outside to consider as they make preparations for the heat. As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level support keeps PoPs in the chance to slight chance range through Tuesday, as coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Mid next week, a frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the best upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still uncertain if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week, highest Wednesday PM when models suggest the frontal precip moves through. Severe potential looks to be limited at this time, with best upper level forcing and shear well to the north. However, ample instability paired with PWATS near 2" could bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and stronger wind gusts with convection associated with the front. If the front ends up stalling over the region next week, this could provide an axis for persistent, heavy precip, and will be worth monitoring for flash flooding concerns. Plenty of possible scenarios at this point with the frontal passage still 5 days out. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 3 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Typical summertime pattern with widely SCT seabreeze TSRA Pred VFR conditions expected across rtes outside of diurnal thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Storm chances peak around 20-30% mid to late afternoon with initiation along the sea/sound breezes and storm outflow boundaries. Fog chances this morning and again tonight remain quite low for most of the area, generally less than 10%, but cannot rule out light fog/mist with far SW rtes having the highest chance of seeing reductions in vsbys. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 2 AM Saturday...Generally VFR conditions expected through the long term. Daily tstorm chances could bring reduced vis and cigs, with the highest likelihood Wednesday PM. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 400 AM Sunday... Key Messages - Typical summertime pattern continues, with breezy southwest winds, and a risk of thunderstorms for the inland rivers and sounds High pressure remains centered offshore bringing S to SW winds across the waters through the short term. Winds around 5-15 kt this morning but will continue to see the typical diurnally enhanced winds to around 15-20 kt during the afternoon and evening hours before subsiding late tonight. Seas around 2-4 ft will continue through the short term with a moderate 9-10 sec swell. The thunderstorm risk is expected to be fairly typical for summertime, with the risk being focused over the inland rivers and sounds during the afternoon and evening hours, followed by a shift in the risk to the offshore coastal waters during the overnight hours. LONG TERM /Monday though Thursday/... As of 2 AM Saturday...Monday and Tuesday pressure gradient tightens with high strengthening offshore, and winds pick up to become 15-30kt out of the S/SW and seas respond to be 4-6 ft. Monday night through Tuesday will be our next best chance of seeing small craft advisory criteria conditions for coastal waters, Pamlico, Croatan, and Roanoke sounds. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...SK/RJ MARINE...SK/RJ