467
FXUS62 KMHX 030647
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through
tomorrow. The high then shifts offshore Thursday through this
weekend with oppressive heat and humidity returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 10 PM Tue...No changes needed with late eve update.

Prev disc... As of 7 PM Tue...No changes needed with pm update.
Still expecting pleasantly coolish overnight lows in the 60s
away from the immediate coast (low 70s beaches) as winds become
light overnight.

Prev disc... As of 3 PM Tue...High pressure remains in control
through the day, gradually shifting eastward as mid- level ridge
builds overhead. Temperatures will rebound from cool morning
lows with plenty of sunshine, and highs in the low to mid 80s
are expected.

Fair conditions continue tonight with high pressure continuing
over the area. A light easterly breeze will persist, but it
will become nearly calm well inland. Partly cloudy conditions
are expected as moisture streams in off the Atlantic, and this
along with the light breeze will limit overnight cooling
somewhat, with early morning lows expected in the low 60s
inland, and the mid to upper 60s closer to the coast. Some
patchy fog is possible over the coastal plain, but this might
end up forming closer to the I-95 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tues...Only small changes to the weather pattern
Wednesday with high pressure shifting slightly to the east and
resulting in a more E/ESE wind across Eastern NC. Low level
thicknesses will be similar, so expect highs again in the mid to
upper 80s with relatively low humidity levels. A slight
increase in moisture around 850 mb will lead to slightly more
clouds, and there even could be a few brief sprinkles.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wed...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend

July 4th holiday should feature mostly dry weather and temps
near climo. CAMs show convection ongoing over central VA Thu
afternoon and evening. Expect this activity to weaken with loss
of heating as it moves eastward towards ENC. Will continue to
keep the forecast dry, though there is potential for an isolated
shower or storm to push across the northern portions of the
forecast area, best chances closer to the Albemarle Sound, after
00z.

Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week
and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up
across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain
overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle
to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will
continue to push further offshore through the end of the week
allowing SSW and deeper moisture to return to the area.

Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for
oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar
into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the
beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s.
This could to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg. A cold
front will approach the area this weekend and early next week,
but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly dry forecast
through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven seabreeze pops
Fri into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Thu/...
As of 130 AM Wed...VFR conditions prevail across area terminals
today as high pressure centered off the coast of the Delmarva
Peninsula extends into the Carolinas. Main concern tonight
remains a weak signal for patchy low stratus and ground fog,
although highest probabilities are north and west of the region
closer to the VA border. Still, cannot rule out a spotty early
morning fog threat for PGV where winds will most likely and a
fog-happy OAJ based on recent observational trends.

Another quiet flying day in store after sunrise with easterly
winds gradually veering southeasterly as sea breeze makes its
way inland, although winds will remain at around 5 kt through
the period. For OBX, winds stay closer to a steady 10 kt.


LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 245 AM Wed... Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 PM Tues...Nice boating conditions are anticipated
through tomorrow with high pressure ridging across the waters.
Winds will be NE 10-20 kts through this evening and then will
subside to E at 5-15 kts tonight. Light E to ESE flow continues
tomorrow. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 245 AM Wed...Mostly benign boating conditions are
forecast for the period. Light and variable winds to start off
Thu, becoming SSE 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Typical summertime
pattern late week into the weekend, with SSW winds 10-20 kt,
strongest during the late afternoon and evening. Seas generally
2-4 ft through the period, with potential for 5 ft across the
outer waters Fri night. May continue to see longer period
swells from very distant Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though
should have little impact on wave heights.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...MS/CQD
MARINE...SGK/CQD