018
FXUS62 KMHX 110853
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
453 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stalled across the region today through
Saturday with moist southerly flow bringing periods of heavy
rain. The front will dissipate early next week with hot temps
and the potential to heat indices in excess of 105 degrees
returning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...
Key Message:
-Very unsettled weather persist into the weekend with several
 inches of rain are expected to fall during this period. This
 may bring flooding concerns to low-lying and poor drainage
 areas but should also help to ease the ongoing drought
 conditions.

The upper level pattern consists of ridging off the Mid Atlantic
coast and troughing across the Mid West into the northern Mid
Atlantic states. An upper low is also moving westward beneath
the Atlantic ridge and is currently around 600 mi SE of the NC
coast. At the surface, the remnants to TC Beryl pushing east of
the Great Lakes and will move into New England today while the
trailing cold front, currently near the I-95 corridor, will move
into the region this morning and stall.

The pattern is setting the stage for an atmospheric river event
along the eastern seaboard that is tapping into deep tropical
moisture off the east coast of Florida. PW values will approach
2.5" today as this moisture is drawn northward and expect
periods of heavy rainfall to develop across the region today.
Heaviest rainfall will be near the stalled frontal boundary
where surface convergence is maximized. Guidance shows this
area to be along the highway 17 corridor with average rainfall
amounts around 2 inches possible today alone...but cannot rule
out higher amounts as training of storms will be likely.
Rainfall amounts will be less near the coast but periods of
heavy showers will still be possible. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms also expected but lack of shear will keep the
severe threat negligible.

Clouds and precip will bring relatively cooler temps today with
highs generally in the middle 80s but could see some upper 80s
near the coast if enough cloud breaks develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 415 AM Thursday...The upper pattern remains similar
tonight with the aforementioned upper low off the Southeast
gradually filling while approaching the Carolina coast. The sfc
front is progged to slide westward into the piedmont with a weak
sfc low off the GA/SC coast. Numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected to continue across the region but with
waning instability, weakened convergence with the front to the
west, and mid/upper level drying ahead of the upper low
lowering PW values to around 2", rainfall amounts are not
expected to be as high overnight. Still could see an additional
1/2-1" across inland areas while coastal sections will continue
to see lower amounts. Lows generally expected in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
Key Messages:

-Very wet period expected Friday and Saturday possibly lingering
 into Sunday, with heavy rain chances likely (70-80%) at times
 with localized flooding possible. Severe threat remains
 relatively low at this time. 4-6 inches of rain possible west
 of highway 17.

-Warm and humid conditions continue. Sunday through Wednesday
 heat indices of 105-110 degrees are possible each day.

Not many changes to the forecast over the last 24 hours. Wet and
warm will be the story for the long term forecast as a frontal
system extending southward into the Carolinas becomes nearly
stationary for Friday and Saturday. This feature will remain
between high pressure offshore and lower pressure to the north and
west. This pattern will facilitate extremely efficient moisture
transport off of the Atlantic over the Carolinas. This is highlighted
by the ECMWF extreme forecast index which is showing anomalously high
precipitation values over the Carolinas. In addition model soundings
show PW values approaching 2.5 inches at times. Friday will see
higher concentration of QPF west of highway 17 with a broader area
of lesser amounts on Saturday across the CWA as the front begins to
push eastward.

With Friday being the most likely day for any kind of flooding
issues, WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall across all of
eastern North Carolina. That being said, antecedent conditions have
been dry and therefore it will likely take some training of
convection for a period of time to produce flooding.

While there will also be a chance for thunderstorms each day, the
chances for severe weather remain underwhelming. While there will
certainly be enough moisture and instability to initiate convection,
shear values are lacking. Thus the heavy rain is the primary threat
during this time period.

Not to be overlooked in the long term is the threat for extreme
heat, particularly beginning on Sunday through Wednesday. Expect high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s inland with upper 80s to low 90s
along the coast. Heat index values will push or exceed 105 degrees
each day in most locations except the extreme coastal areas.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Pred sub-VFR conditions are expected
through much of the TAF period as a front stalls across rtes
this morning bringing numerous to widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms. MVFR conditions have moved into western
rtes early this morning which is expected to spread across most
rtes this morning. Heavier downpours will develop this morning
which will bring periods reduced visibilities to IFR and the
heaviest showers could have wind gusts to 30 kt otherwise winds
are expected to be light except for this afternoon when gusts to
20 kt will occur.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...
For Friday and Saturday expect periods of sub VFR conditions as
heavy rain is expected across eastern NC. Precipitation will
affect ceilings and visibilities during the heaviest rainfall
and overnight periods. Rain is expected to continue through
Saturday and possibly into Sunday before tapering off early next
week. Thunderstorms are also possible during this time,
particularly in the afternoons but severe weather is unlikely.
Winds will keep a southerly component at 5-10 knots gusting to
15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 430 AM Thursday...A prolonged period of low end SCA
conditions will develop today and continue through tonight.

Currently seeing southerly winds around 10-20 kt with seas
around 3-4 ft. A cold front will move into the coastal plain
today and stall and will see gradients tighten a bit allowing
winds to increase to around 15-25 kt this afternoon and continue
through tonight, with the strongest winds expected after
midnight tonight. Seas build to around 4-6 ft this afternoon and
to 5-7 ft tonight with some 8 ft seas possible across outer
portions of the waters.

Have issued a SCA for all waters but Albemarle Sound and
Alligator River as gradients will be weaker here. Most of the
waters begin SCA conditions early this afternoon except the
inland rivers which is expect to see SCA conditions develop
around midnight with frequent gusts to around 25 kt.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...Small craft conditions will likely
continue across the central and southern waters through Saturday
afternoon with wind gusts approaching 25 kts and seas near 6
ft. For Pamlico Sound, expect SCA conditions to relent Saturday
morning. Waves and winds will relax for Sunday and into the
middle part of next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Friday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/SK
MARINE...RTE/SK