Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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559 FXUS62 KMHX 072347 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 747 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall to the west tonight which will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through early this evening. The front will eventually dissipate across the Piedmont on Monday. More diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is then forecast from early in the week through about midweek before the next front approaches and interacts with moisture from the remnants of Beryl bringing increased precipitation chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 740 PM Sun...Thunderstorm activity is beginning to wane tonight with only a few spotty pockets of convection developing along residual outflow boundaries from prior activity. Continued weakening is expected with loss of heating tonight, and by midnight all locations should be dry. Conversely, convective activity will begin to blossom over area waters overnight with widely scattered showers potentially impacting the immediate coast, especially the Outer Banks as lift continues to increase with an offshore upper low. Temps tonight are forecast to be sultry in the low to mid 70s and light southerly coastal breezes. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 255 PM Sunday...The pattern for much of the upcoming week will feature typical summer heat and humidity along with primarily diurnally driven showers and storms. Monday the coverage of these showers and storms should be less than what occurred over the weekend and should form mainly in vicinity of the sea breeze boundaries in the afternoon. Storms should remain sub severe with MUCAPE values 1500-2000 J/kg and very weak shear. Some locally heavy rains will be possible as storm movements should remain slow. Highs again will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Sun...Typical summertime pattern expected through mid week, transitioning to a wetter pattern late week and next weekend. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week. Heat index values 100-105 deg will be possible each afternoon through mid week. A cold front will dissipate west of the area Monday, while weak upper low offshore meanders off the SE coast. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast through the period. Expect convective chances to be near climo through Wednesday, with better chances for more widespread coverage late week into next weekend. Another front will approach late week into next weekend, possibly stalling near the area as weak waves develop along it then likely interacting with moisture from the remnants of Beryl. Overall continued to cap pops at chance, but did increase Fri to likely for much of the area. At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit overall svr threat each day. However, periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially later in the period with PWATs potentially creeping towards 2.5". While this could help the ongoing drought conditions, it could also lead to minor flooding concerns. Temps look to be near climo, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s each day and overnight lows in the 70s. Temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s, could lead to heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees each afternoon through mid week. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 00Z Tue/... As of 750 PM Sun...Mix of MVFR and VFR cigs this evening as convective activity begins to give way to decaying stratiform rain. Brief periods of MVFR likely in heavier rainfall in the near term, but all areas should be dry by 02-03z. Guidance remains insistent on a bank of MVFR stratus developing over central NC and extending over the coastal plain by 09-10z, and expanded the MVFR forecast to include both ISO and PGV through about 14z. LAMP is very aggressive with fog potential, but given likely persistent debris cirri overhead the probability of this appears low (10% or less). VFR conditions return for the remainder of the period. Showers and thunderstorms likely to redevelop tomorrow but with considerably less coverage than the past two days. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 240 AM Sun...Sct shower/tstm chances expected through the next several days, peaking during max heating each afternoon and evening, which could bring periods of sub-VFR to the terminals. Best chances for widespread precip look to be late week. Patchy fog and/or stratus will be possible each night, with increased chances for areas that receive rain. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 255 PM Sunday...Good boating conditions outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Mon. Winds are currently SW at 10-15 kts, and will persist through Mon. Seas will remain 2-3 ft. Thunderstorms will have locally higher winds and seas. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 240 AM Sun...Overall pleasant boating conditions expected through the next few days. Typical summertime pattern continues with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc trough inland. S-SW winds 5-15 kt through Wed with seas 2-3 ft, occasionally up to 4 ft across the outer waters. Southerly winds will begin to increase a bit late week 10-20 kt with seas building to 3-5 ft. SCA conditions possible across the waters late week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/MS SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/MS MARINE...JME/CQD