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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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396 FXUS62 KMHX 201930 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary will continue to meander across the Carolinas for the next several days and be the catalyst for a prolonged period of unsettled weather that will continue into next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 330 PM Sat...Dry and quiet conditions cont acrs ENC as of mid afternoon, though still expecting an inc in thundershowers towards the evening as inland trough activates in conjunction with afternoon heating. Front currently stretched sw to ne from around Durham to Williamsburg. This will be the main focus for convection this evening, and storm mode will become mostly linear this evening, suggesting activity will race sewrd towards ENC after around 6-7pm. Main threat will be isolated damaging wind gusts, as latest SCRAM probs are up to around 15% in the Albemarle region. Some minor flooding is possible but storm motions will be faster than the last few days due to the inc shear/flow aloft. However, because of the recent rounds of rain across northern sections of ENC, flash flood guidance is notably low (only about 1-3"/hr). Therefore, could still be a few instances of flash flooding. Please see the "hydro" section below for additional information. Have likely pops for the nrn half of the FA this evening, then as activity drops south and east, instability will be waning, therefore less certain on if storms will hold together or not, and have high chc to account for uncertainty in convective covg south of 70. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sat...Similar pattern for Sunday. Typical min in showers in the AM will become sct to localized numerous later in the afternoon with daytime heating. Uncertainty in how much cloud cover will linger however. More clouds would equal less ts covg for the afternoon. Used a HREF consenus and am fcsting generally 40-60%, lowest pops on the OBX, highest along the sea-breeze front and interior zones. Again, could see a stronger storm with main threat microburst winds, along with localized heavy rain/flooding where/if stronger cells develop. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM Sat...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods of showers and thunderstorms with torrential downpours will persist into much of the upcoming week as moist southerly flow continues and a wavy, weak front persists over/near eastern NC through the period. Sunday night through Friday...No end in sight for the unsettled, wet period that started mid week. A very moist airmass combined with the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an above climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will have torrential downpours with PW values remaining 2" or higher. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall by mid next week. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas. PoPs were lowered from the too high NBM which has categorical PoPs through much of the period. We prefer to keep PoPs in the chance to low end likely which is still above climo (40%). High temps will run at or just slightly below normal, while lows will be slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through 06z Sunday/... As of 2 PM Sat...Skies have returned to VFR. Sub- VFR CIGs then return late tonight, esp nwrn areas of ENC KISO and KPGV having the best chance, with a period of IFR poss again, esp where it rains. Could see a period of tsra this evening, and have a tempo for this in the current fcst. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/... As of 220 AM Sat...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers and storms will continue into mid next week with occasional sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through much of the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 330 PM Sat...Swrly flow cont in the 10-15 kt range this afternoon. Gradient will inc some tonight, with 15-20 kt developing. HREF probs of SCA gusts quite high in the 60+ % range this evening, though will not issue headlines, as thinking it will be more localized and have ocnl gusts to 25+ mentioned in the fcst, esp for Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds, as well as the ctrl waters. With the increase in winds, seas are forecast to build to 3-4 ft, with some 5 ft sets poss especially from Oregon Inlet south. Sct to numerous showers and storms this evening, esp for Albemarle region, will spread south tonight. A lull in activity for late night and morning Sunday, before addtional sct convection poss again Sun afternoon. Where thunderstorms occur, there will be a risk of frequent, dangerous lightning, as well as 34kt+ wind gusts. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/... As of 220 AM Sat...The flow is expected to remain S/SW all waters through the period outside of convection. On Tue wind speeds will be 10-15 kt while on Mon and Wed winds will be a little higher in the 15-20 kt range. Seas will be 2-4 ft through the period. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be high through mid next week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 330 PM Sat...The forecast is for unsettled, wet conditions to continue well into next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and evenings. While there is considerable uncertainty in exact details on storm coverage each day, soil moisture levels continue to increase due to heavy rains from the previous couple of days such that any additional heavy rains would runoff more easily and result in local flooding. In addition with PW values expected to continue seasonally high (>=2"), locally heavy rain amounts will continue to be a threat over the next several days. There is the potential for storms to produce 2-3" in an hour with locally higher amounts which would be enough generate urban/poor drainage flooding. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...RTE/JME AVIATION...JME/TL MARINE...JME/TL HYDROLOGY...MHX