396
FXUS62 KMHX 201930
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will continue to meander across the
Carolinas for the next several days and be the catalyst for a
prolonged period of unsettled weather that will continue into
next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Dry and quiet conditions cont acrs ENC as of
mid afternoon, though still expecting an inc in thundershowers
towards the evening as inland trough activates in conjunction
with afternoon heating. Front currently stretched sw to ne from
around Durham to Williamsburg. This will be the main focus for
convection this evening, and storm mode will become mostly
linear this evening, suggesting activity will race sewrd towards
ENC after around 6-7pm. Main threat will be isolated damaging
wind gusts, as latest SCRAM probs are up to around 15% in the
Albemarle region. Some minor flooding is possible but storm
motions will be faster than the last few days due to the inc
shear/flow aloft. However, because of the recent rounds of rain
across northern sections of ENC, flash flood guidance is
notably low (only about 1-3"/hr). Therefore, could still be a
few instances of flash flooding. Please see the "hydro" section
below for additional information.

Have likely pops for the nrn half of the FA this evening, then
as activity drops south and east, instability will be waning,
therefore less certain on if storms will hold together or not,
and have high chc to account for uncertainty in convective covg
south of 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Similar pattern for Sunday. Typical min in
showers in the AM will become sct to localized numerous later in
the afternoon with daytime heating. Uncertainty in how much
cloud cover will linger however. More clouds would equal less ts
covg for the afternoon. Used a HREF consenus and am fcsting
generally 40-60%, lowest pops on the OBX, highest along the
sea-breeze front and interior zones. Again, could see a stronger
storm with main threat microburst winds, along with localized
heavy rain/flooding where/if stronger cells develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM Sat...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods
of showers and thunderstorms with torrential downpours will
persist into much of the upcoming week as moist southerly flow
continues and a wavy, weak front persists over/near eastern NC
through the period.

Sunday night through Friday...No end in sight for the
unsettled, wet period that started mid week. A very moist
airmass combined with the proximity to a weak front/boundary
will lead to an above climo chance for rain each day in the form
of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The showers
and storms will have torrential downpours with PW values
remaining 2" or higher. This will likely result in several
inches of rainfall by mid next week. Frequent downpours will
produce localized Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage
areas. PoPs were lowered from the too high NBM which has
categorical PoPs through much of the period. We prefer to keep
PoPs in the chance to low end likely which is still above climo
(40%). High temps will run at or just slightly below normal,
while lows will be slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 06z Sunday/...
As of 2 PM Sat...Skies have returned to VFR. Sub- VFR CIGs then
return late tonight, esp nwrn areas of ENC KISO and KPGV having
the best chance, with a period of IFR poss again, esp where it
rains. Could see a period of tsra this evening, and have a
tempo for this in the current fcst.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 220 AM Sat...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers
and storms will continue into mid next week with occasional sub
VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus clouds
will be possible early each morning especially in areas that
received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts
through much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Swrly flow cont in the 10-15 kt range this
afternoon. Gradient will inc some tonight, with 15-20 kt
developing. HREF probs of SCA gusts quite high in the 60+ %
range this evening, though will not issue headlines, as thinking
it will be more localized and have ocnl gusts to 25+ mentioned
in the fcst, esp for Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds, as well as
the ctrl waters. With the increase in winds, seas are forecast
to build to 3-4 ft, with some 5 ft sets poss especially from
Oregon Inlet south. Sct to numerous showers and storms this
evening, esp for Albemarle region, will spread south tonight. A
lull in activity for late night and morning Sunday, before
addtional sct convection poss again Sun afternoon. Where
thunderstorms occur, there will be a risk of frequent,
dangerous lightning, as well as 34kt+ wind gusts.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 220 AM Sat...The flow is expected to remain S/SW all
waters through the period outside of convection. On Tue wind
speeds will be 10-15 kt while on Mon and Wed winds will be a
little higher in the 15-20 kt range. Seas will be 2-4 ft through
the period. Shower and storm chances are forecast to be high
through mid next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 PM Sat...The forecast is for unsettled, wet
conditions to continue well into next week with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during
the afternoon and evenings. While there is considerable
uncertainty in exact details on storm coverage each day, soil
moisture levels continue to increase due to heavy rains from the
previous couple of days such that any additional heavy rains
would runoff more easily and result in local flooding. In
addition with PW values expected to continue seasonally high
(>=2"), locally heavy rain amounts will continue to be a threat
over the next several days. There is the potential for storms to
produce 2-3" in an hour with locally higher amounts which would
be enough generate urban/poor drainage flooding.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RTE/JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
HYDROLOGY...MHX