740
FXUS62 KMHX 191424
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1024 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front is parked near the NC/VA border and will move
slightly south day. Unsettled weather will continue into next
week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each
day. Storm coverage is uncertain, but increasing soil moisture
levels from heavy rains present a greater likelihood of runoff
and localized flooding. 2-3"/hour rainfall rates are possible
with locally higher amounts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1025 AM Fri...Frontal boundary continues to slowly
meander southward today, oriented roughly from Cape Hatteras
westwards. Band of rain persists just north of the boundary, and
although it is comparatively weak MRMS estimates point to
nearly an inch of rain already fallen in the past hour - no
surprise in an airmass with PWATs over 2 inches.

The frontal boundary will provide a focal point for yet another
round of showers and storms today, but the role of lingering
cloud cover is increasing uncertainty on the coverage.
Convective temperatures are in the upper 80s, but with weak
mixing clouds will likely hold on for the better part of the
morning and potentially prevent enough robust warming to allow
for numerous showers and storms. Kept PoPs at likely but did
remove categorical mentions given the uncertainty.

With saturated soils from yesterday`s heavy rain, localized
flash flooding remains a concern with widespread 1.5-3" expected
through Monday. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, so WPC has most of the FA outlined in a slight risk
for excessive rainfall today. See the Hydrology section for more
details.

Highs will be in the mid-80s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 4 AM Friday...PoPs remain greatest near the coast
overnight but scattered showers across the coastal plain are not
out of the question. Lows will be similar to last night with
temps in the low to mid 70s. With saturated soils and winds
likely to decouple, overnight fog and low stratus are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Fri...Key message: Unsettled weather with periods
of showers and thunderstorms will persist into much of the
upcoming week as moist southerly flow continues and a wavy, weak
front persists over/near eastern NC through the period.

Saturday through Thursday...No end in sight for the unsettled,
wet period that started mid week. A very moist airmass combined
with the proximity to a weak front/boundary will lead to an
above climo chance for rain each day in the form of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. The showers and storms will
have torrential downpours with PW values remaining 2" or
higher. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall by
mid next week. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash
Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas. High temps will
run at or just slightly below normal, while lows will be
slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Fri/...
As of 4 AM Friday...Low stratus coverage has been increasing
across the CWA for the past few hours. These lowered ceilings
could last through late morning or early afternoon.

Conditions should improve back to VFR by this afternoon but then
another opportunity for sub-VFR conditions will arise with
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected today.
These storms will be capable of producing torrential downpours
and strong wind gusts.

Fog and low stratus are likely again tonight given the saturated
soils and likelihood that we will decouple. The saving grace
would be greater cloud cover to reduce radiational cooling.

As of 2 AM Friday... No significant changes to the forecast
through tomorrow as impactful showers and thunderstorms are
currently making their way across ENC this evening with storms
already through PGV/ISO with OAJ/EWN likely seeing rain and
storms within the next 1-2 hours.

Cold front will move into the area tonight,
stalling Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible
through late this evening, with increasing confidence in
widespread sub-VFR conditions developing late this evening and
tonight. Strong storms could bring gusty winds and heavy rain.
Low cigs likely developing overnight with potential for IFR.
Patchy fog will also be possible across the inland terminals
early Fri morning with moist boundary layer and calm winds. Sub-
VFR cigs could linger through late morning and early afternoon
before grad improving to VFR by the afternoon on Fri with light
winds and VFR ceilings and vis forecast after about 18Z Fri.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 240 AM Fri...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal showers
and storms will continue into early next week with occasional
sub VFR conditions. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus
clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas
that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15
kts through much of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Friday...All SCAs have now expired as conditions are
improving for both winds and seas. Today, winds will be around
10-15 kt out of the SW. The exception will be the northern
waters, which will encounter variable wind directions this
afternoon with the front sagging south. 2-5 ft seas will
decrease to 2-3 ft by tonight but build back to 2-5 ft across
the southern waters by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 240 AM Fri...The flow is expected to become S/SW all
waters through the period. On Sat the flow will become enhanced
as lower pressures inland lead to slightly stronger gradient.
Winds will increase to 15-20 kt and could briefly reach SCA
levels in the late afternoon and early evening. Otherwise the
flow will be mainly 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Shower and storm
chances are forecast to be high through early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 240 AM Fri...The forecast is for unsettled, wet
conditions to continue well into next week with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during
the afternoon and evenings. While there is considerable
uncertainty in exact details on storm coverage each day, soil
moisture levels continue to increase due to heavy rains from the
previous couple of days indicating that any additional heavy
rains would runoff more easily and result in local flooding. In
addition with PW values expected to continue seasonally high
(>=2"), locally heavy rain amounts will continue to be a threat
over the next several days. In fact, the high res models QPF
amounts are in excess of 8" in spots over the next 48 hours
(through Sunday). While these extreme amounts may not be
realized, there is certainly the potential for storms to produce
2-3" in an hour which would be enough generate urban/poor
drainage flooding.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/OJC
MARINE...JME/OJC
HYDROLOGY...MHX