685
FXUS62 KMHX 170751
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
351 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Conditions are changing from sultry to rainy as the pattern
becomes more unsettled through the rest of the week and into the
weekend. Multiple days of heavy rainfall are expected with Fri
and Sat outlined in a slight risk for excessive rainfall by WPC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Today is the transition day from scorching
heat to a more unsettled pattern. The ridge will begin to break
down today as a potent cold front approaches from the west.
We`ll still be warm today but not nearly as warm as the past few
days. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s across the
coastal plain and upper 80s along the immediate coast and OBX.
Dew points in the upper 70s will help generate heat indices
reaching up to 105 in some areas, so a Heat Advisory is in
effect from 11 AM to 8 PM.

As for convection, earlier activity will be focused closer to
the coast (generally east of HWY 17) but coverage will expand
inland through the afternoon as the seabreeze makes its way
west. Similarly to the past few days, the environment will be
one of high MLCAPE, high PWAT, and weak shear, which should keep
storms sub-severe but capable of becoming strong in nature. Any
storm that forms in this environment will be capable of
producing gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3:30 AM Wednesday...The Heat Advisory is set to end at 8
PM this evening, but cloud cover and convective coverage may
allow this to be cancelled early. The CAMs have activity
continuing well into the night but with a focus on areas closer
to the coast and offshore. Overnight lows will dip into the mid
70s across the coastal plain with the beaches remaining near 80.
Breezy SW winds overnight should preclude any fog threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wed...Key messages:
1)There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the
main threat.

2)Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur
each day for the next 7 days with most of the activity
occurring in the afternoon and evenings. Heavy rains are
expected with forecast 5 day rain totals through the weekend of
3-5" and locally higher amounts possible.

We will trade the intense heat for slightly cooler but continued
humid weather due to clouds and scattered to numerous showers/storms
each day.

Thursday through Friday...More certainty for the end of the
week as the latest model suite conts to converge on active
weather pattern as front moves into ENC and stalls. PW values
return to ~2.25" or higher and remain there through the end of
the week. Strong moisture convergence and good upr dynamics (ENC
in right entrance region of jet) in place for numerous showers
and ocnl thunder, and WPC highlighting ENC in a `slight` risk
for excessive rain. In addition, layer mix ratios inc to a
whopping 17 g/kg or higher. For these reasons, have added heavy
rain mention to fcst both Thur and Fri, centered during the
daytime diurnal cycle when the heaviest showers and storms are
expected. Though shear looks to be low there will be enough on
Thu to support a low end severe weather threat with isolated
damaging wind gusts the main threat. Instability goes down a
bit Fri (1000-2000 J/Kg), along with cont weak shear (<20 kt),
so biggest threat from storms that develop then will be some
heavy rain with localized flooding. The good news is that the
increased clouds and rain will put an end to the dangerously
high heat/humidity.

Saturday through Tuesday...Still looks to be cont active with
quasi-stationary troughing over the TN/OH Valleys to Mid
Atlantic, keeping ENC in favorable right entrance region of jet
while southerly flow keeps circulating very moist air into the
region. NBM cont to indicate likely to categorical pops through
this whole period, though as is the case with convection,
showers and storms will be on and off, so have 40-60% pops for
the better part of the weekend into early next week until
mesoscale details can be resolved, with highest pops focused on
the diurnal cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Wed/...
As of 2 AM Wed...VFR conditions forecast through tonight as we
remain mixed enough to preclude a fog threat and ceilings remain
above 3 kft. Later this morning and afternoon, another round of
showers and thunderstorms are possible for coastal TAF sites in
the morning with chances shifting to the Coastal Plain in the
afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland. This will bring a
threat for sub-VFR conditions, however given the inherent
uncertainty with shower and tstm cov, only VCSH/VCTS will be
mentioned at the TAF sites. Winds are expected to remain around
10 mph overnight which will again preclude any fog formation.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 250 AM Wed...Diurnal showers and storms become more
numerous Thu through the weekend. Exceptions to this could be
with overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at
5-15 kts through much of the period with gusts nearing 20 kt Thu
afternoon. Occasional showers and storms along with low clouds
will bring MVFR or lower cond.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Winds remain out of the SW through the
period but become progressively gustier. Winds are currently
15-20 kt with 25 kt gusts and will increase to 30 kt gusts this
evening (weaker for inland rivers and the Albemarle Sound). Seas
will be 3-4 ft today and increase to 5-6 ft tonight. The
Pamlico, Croatan and Roanoke Sounds are under a SCA until 09Z
Thursday and the coastal waters are under a SCA through
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms for the coastal waters and
Pamlico Sound will be possible early this morning but chances
become greater late tonight. Any storm that develops will be
capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 250 AM Wed...Gradient conts tight with sswrly winds 20-25
kt with gusts up to 30 kt into Thu evening, thus SCA`s cont for
the coastal waters as well as Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds.
Seas will build to 5-7 ft into Thu evening, when the gradient
relaxes and winds drop below 25 kt. The flow from Fri into
Sunday will continue S to SW 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft Fri and
2-4 ft Sat and Sunday. Shower and storm chances will increase
through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 355 AM Wed...Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected
today into the weekends, aided by a stalled frontal boundary and
anomalously high PWATs. WPC continues to outlook the area in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall Thu and Fri with qpf storm
totals 3-5" forecast through Sat with locally higher amounts
possible. This could lead to areas of minor flooding and
localized flash flooding Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...OJC/RCF/JME
MARINE...OJC/RCF/JME
HYDROLOGY...MHX