Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
374 FXUS62 KMHX 101830 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 230 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak fronts and various upper level waves will lead to unsettled weather for several days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 PM Thursday... Key Messages - Increased risk of showers and thunderstorms through tonight, a few of which could be strong to severe with damaging winds and minor flooding Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a boundary moving across the coastal plain, meanwhile the sea breeze is slowly progressing inland. Between these boundaries, scattered convection has initiated. Where these boundaries converge (possibly along hwy 17 from Onslow to Beaufort county) there could be a swath of enhanced rainfall totals. A moist profile with limited dry air at midlevels keeps our downburst potential low, reducing the chances of severe wind gusts. Low level lapse rates are high, so sub-severe gusts of 30-50mph are possible in the strongest of storms. Of greater concern is the rainfall totals in the urban areas around Jacksonville, New Bern, Greenville, and Washington NC where continuous storms over the next 3-6 hours would be capable of dropping 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. This results in a risk of minor flash flooding concerns, WPC has us in a marginal (1/5) ERO for today. Additional waves of forcing are capable of producing thunderstorms in ENC through around 2am, at which point any additional convection should be focused along coastal areas and offshore waters. This convection should also remain sub-severe given the nighttime stabilization that is expected to set up. Behind the convection tonight, low ceilings and patchy fog may develop as low levels remain moist and winds decrease after sunset. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 2 PM Thursday... A weak sfc low forms offshore tomorrow, and meanders to the north and west through the day. Hi-res guidance indicates a boundary of some sort attached to this low or a weak trough sweeping through the region from north to south. If this trough moves through in the afternoon/evening hours, any collision with the daily sea breeze could be an area to watch for additional storm development. If the wave moves through after sunset (which some models indicate) it would result in 2 possible waves of precip, once with the sea breeze and the second with the north to south moving boundary. Storms should be sub-severe, but isolated instances of minor flash flooding are possible. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM Thurs...We will continue to see a rather active pattern across ENC through this weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as a thermal trough remains inland and high pressure ridging remains anchored offshore. Upper level pattern will remain active to the north, with multiple troughs tracking from west to east across the Northern Plains into the Northeast, while upper level ridging remaining in place off the coast of the Southeast and over the western CONUS. Several weak midlevel shortwave troughs will push across the region through this weekend and into early next week continuing to bring moisture up from the Gulf from midlevels downward across the Southeast. As a result, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will persist across the CWA with lowest precipitation chances overnight unless a stronger storm cluster persists and drifts into the CWA from further inland before dissipating. While there will be a lack of wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day bringing the potential for sub-severe wind gusts within the strongest storms with the Coastal Plain having the highest chance at seeing stronger storms. Late this weekend and into early next week, a backdoor front slowly sags down the Mid-Atlantic coast but there are tons of model differences in how far and how quickly it will march Sward. This remains contingent on how much momentum gets transferred from the trough aloft exiting NECONUS and where midlevel shortwaves and potential MCSs line up. For now, keeping the backdoor front along the northern zones of the area early next week which will keep available moisture for diurnal summer time shower and tstorms in place into midweek next week. Max Temps each day range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with min temps mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Friday/... As of 215 PM Thursday... Key Messages - Increased risk of TSRA over the next 12 hours - Sub-VFR conditions possible inland tomorrow morning As daytime heating and destabilization continues, the risk of SHRA and TSRA will continue until around 6Z. Guidance continues to show a more solid signal for TSRA today compared to the past few days. Where TSRA occur, there will be an increased risk of IFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds of 20-40kt. Like the past few nights, another round of IFR/MVFR CIGs appears possible tonight in the wake of the TSRA activity. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 230 AM Thurs...Several mid level shortwaves will track across ENC into early next week. This will continue to bring a daily threat for showers and thunderstorms as well as sub-VFR conditions. Best chance to see reduced vis and ceilings from this activity is in the afternoon and early evening each day. If it does rain then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat each night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. Slow moving front sags down the NE coast late weekend/early next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 230 PM Thurs...A thermal trough inland is interacting with a ridge of high pressure centered offshore allowing SW`rly winds to increase slightly to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 20 kts. Given the (relatively) cooler temps today, do not expect us to reach frequent gusts of 25 kts for any waters. Gusty winds will then ease once again overnight to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through the period. There will be a chance to see some shower and thunderstorm activity across our waters today through tonight, bringing at least a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas within any thunderstorm that impacts the waters. LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/... As of 230 AM Thurs...With little change in the surface pattern through this weekend as high pressure ridging remains centered offshore and a thermal trough remains centered off to the west, expect 10-20 kt SW`rly winds and with gusts up to 20 to occasionally 25 kts across our waters through this weekend while seas persist around 2-4 ft. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue as well. Cold front slowly sags down the coast late this weekend into early next week, but for now, keep it no further S than our northern zones until early next week. Either way our waters remain below SCA criteria early next week as well, as incoming front will be rather weak. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...RCF/RJ MARINE...RCF/RJ