593
FXUS62 KMHX 172316
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
716 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Conditions are changing from sultry to rainy as the pattern
becomes more unsettled into the weekend. A front will stall
over the area late week, coupled with strong dynamics and a
very moist atmosphere will likely lead to multiple days of
heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 710 PM Wed... Biggest change was to end the heat advisory
on this update across ENC as heat indices have fallen well below
100F. Otherwise everything else is tracking well tonight and
made minimal changes to the forecast on this update.

Prev Disc...Latest analysis shows waves of low pressure
developing along a cold front moving through into the Mid-
Atlantic and central Mid-West. Front and upper trough will
continue to approach from the west overnight as high pressure
slides further offshore. Earlier offshore convection has become
more stratiform with sct showers and storms beginning to slowly
blossom along Hwy 17 this afternoon. Seabreeze and differential
heating boundaries will continue to aid in convective
development this afternoon and early evening, with best chances
west of Hwy 17. Overall svr threat still looks low given the
weak shear. Expect convection to wane with loss of heating this
evening, with chances increasing after midnight. Most CAMs show
potential for numerous coastal showers and storms late tonight
into Thu morning, as is often seen this time of year aided by
the warm Gulf Stream waters. Main concern will be potential for
localized flooding. Though any storm that develops will be
capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning.

Lows overnight falling into the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wed...Active wx day with potential for localized
flash flooding and isolated strong thunderstorms. Upper trough
and sfc cold front will approach ENC from the west, moving into
the favorable right entrance region of the jet combined with
anomalously high PWAT values (around 2.25"). Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected with best chances
along the coast during the morning, then transitioning more
inland and becoming more widespread during the afternoon and
into the evening. The main threat still looks like heavy rain
with the potential for minor flooding to localized flash
flooding. A Flood Watch may be needed, but will hold off at this
time. Isolated strong thunderstorms will also be possible with
bulk shear increasing to 15-25 kt. Mid level lapse rates will
remain weak, but depending on early convection and
destabilization there is potential for an isolated damaging wind
threat in the afternoon and early evening. Clouds and
convection should keep things cooler than recent days, with
highs generally 85-90 deg.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will occur each day for the next 7 days with most
of the activity occurring in the afternoon and evenings. Heavy
rains are expected with forecast 5 day rain totals through the
weekend of 3-5" and locally higher amounts possible. We will
trade the intense heat for slightly cooler but continued humid
weather due to clouds and scattered to numerous showers/storms
each day.

Thursday night through Friday...More certainty for the end of
the week as the latest model suite conts to converge on active
weather pattern as front moves into ENC and stalls. PW values
return to ~2.25" or higher and remain there through the end of
the week. Strong moisture convergence and good upr dynamics (ENC
in right entrance region of jet) in place for numerous showers
and ocnl thunder, and WPC highlighting ENC in a `slight` risk
for excessive rain. In addition, layer mix ratios inc to a
whopping 17 g/kg or higher. Instability goes down a bit Fri
(1000-2000 J/Kg), along with cont weak shear (<20 kt), so
biggest threat from storms that develop then will be some heavy
rain with localized flooding. The good news is that the
increased clouds and rain will put an end to the dangerously
high heat/humidity.

Saturday through Tuesday...Still looks to be cont active with
quasi-stationary troughing over the TN/OH Valleys to Mid
Atlantic, keeping ENC in favorable right entrance region of jet
while southerly flow keeps circulating very moist air into the
region. NBM cont to indicate likely to categorical pops through
this whole period, though as is the case with convection,
showers and storms will be on and off, so have 40-60% pops for
the better part of the weekend into early next week until
mesoscale details can be resolved, with highest pops focused on
the diurnal cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
As of 710 PM Wed... Not much change in the forecast as a
primarily VFR TAF is forecast across ENC through Thurs
afternoon outside of any shower or tstm activity where brief
periods of MVFR ceilings (1-3 KFT) will be possible. Reduced
visibility will also be possible as well within the strongest
storms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through
tonight, becoming more widespread Thu afternoon and evening with
greater potential for sub-VFR ceilings across the TAF sites
during this time though the OBX may see reduced vis and ceilings
Thurs morning with convection moving inland from the Gulf
Stream. Breezy SW winds will diminish late this evening with
winds becoming much lighter tomorrow as well persisting at 5-10
kts with gusts up to 15 kts at times Thurs afternoon.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 250 AM Wed...Diurnal showers and storms become more
numerous through the weekend. Exceptions to this could be with
overnight fog/low stratus. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15
kts through much of the period with gusts nearing 20 kt Thu
afternoon. Occasional showers and storms along with low clouds
will bring MVFR or lower cond.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 230 PM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt, gusting
to 20-25 kt across the outer coastal waters, with seas 3-6 ft.
Upper trough and sfc cold front will approach from the west
tonight and Thu. Breezy SW winds 15-25 kt and seas 3-6 ft will
continue through the period with cold front to the west. SCAs
continue for the coastal waters, Pamlico Sound, Croatan/Roanoke
Sounds through Thu morning and into the evening. May be close
for Albemarle Sound and Alligator River through tonight, but
looks too marginal at this time. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected through period, with best chances
over the waters late tonight into Thu morning. Any storm that
develops will be capable of producing gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent lightning.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 250 AM Wed...Gradient conts tight with sswrly winds 15-25
kt with gusts up to 30 kt Thu evening, thus SCA`s cont for the
coastal waters as well as Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. The
flow from Fri into Sunday will continue S to SW 10-20 kt with
seas 3-5 ft Fri and 2-4 ft Sat and Sunday. Shower and storm
chances will increase through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 PM Wed...Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected
today into the weekend, aided by a stalled frontal boundary and
anomalously high PWATs. WPC continues to outlook the area in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall Thu and Fri with qpf storm
totals 3-5" forecast through Sat with locally higher amounts
possible. This could lead to areas of minor flooding and
localized flash flooding Thursday and Friday. A Flood Watch may
be needed for portions of the area later.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/TL
AVIATION...JME/RCF
MARINE...JME/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX