717
FXUS62 KMFL 081157
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
757 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The prevailing synoptic pattern remains unchanged as we start
the new workweek, with a frontal boundary extending across
the southeastern US and a mid-level low meandering over the
western Atlantic ocean, producing southerly surface winds across
the area. Concurrently, a mass of Saharan dust could approach our
area later today; the SAL`s arrival will help suppress convective
activity over the area, with 50-60% PoPs (at most) mainly near
Lake Okeechobee and interior Palm Beach county. With generally
light steering flow, slow moving storms could once again lead to
concerns for localized flooding each evening.

Easterly-southeasterly flow develops again on Tuesday as
weak ridging is re-established over SE CONUS and the now
weakening upper level low drifts towards the peninsula. Given
the potential lingering presence of Saharan dust over the area,
convective coverage could be suppressed once again Tuesday
afternoon. However, there exists a chance that any convection that
does develop could be strong in nature given the potential upper
level support from the weakening low. Possible localized impacts
with this solution include gusty winds and heavy downpours.

Oppressive heat will once again be a concern this afternoon,
especially if convective coverage fails to materialize as the
high-res models suggest. Current guidance shows today`s high
temperatures reaching the low-mid 90s across much of the region,
with peak heat indices in the 105-110 degree range. As a result, a
Heat Advisory has been issued for all counties from 10AM through
6PM. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, providing little
relief from the heat, with lows in the mid 70s over the interior
and in the low 80s along the immediate coastlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

By Wednesday, the leftover energy of the cut-off low advects
into the Florida Keys as South Florida remains underneath the
influences of the mid-level ridge of high pressure situated to the
north of the region. The remainder of the extended period is
characterized by a weak synoptic regime across the region. Given
the meager synoptic pattern aloft, shower and thunderstorms during
the first part of the week will be dictated by prevailing
background flow and mesoscale driven circulations such as the
daily Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes, with convection initiating
over the local waters and the coasts each morning, shifting
towards the interior and Gulf coast in the afternoon and early
evening hours. However by Thursday, the re- establishment of the
Bermuda High over the western Atlantic waters will provide just
enough of an easterly component to focus afternoon convection
across the Gulf coast metro areas with some morning shower
activity being possible along the east coast of South Florida.
Temperatures throughout the period will remain warm, with high
temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most areas and heat
indices in the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 756 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A convective lull this morning before activity restarts along the
sea breeze late morning into the afternoon. Light southerly flow
will focus convection from south to north with a late
afternoon/early evening focus around Lake Okeechobee and PBI.
Short-fused AMDs likely will be needed for bouts of IFR/LIFR at
directly impacted terminals. Convection should diminish late
evening into the overnight with VFR returning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail
across all local waters through Tuesday. Seas will remain in the
1-3 ft range through this period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each afternoon,
and winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers
and storms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place for the Palm
Beaches today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  80  92  80 /  30  10  50  30
West Kendall     94  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
Opa-Locka        94  80  92  79 /  30  20  50  30
Homestead        93  79  91  79 /  20  10  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  92  80  90  79 /  30  20  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  93  80  90  79 /  40  20  50  30
Pembroke Pines   95  79  93  79 /  30  20  50  30
West Palm Beach  94  78  91  77 /  50  30  60  40
Boca Raton       93  79  91  78 /  40  30  60  40
Naples           93  79  92  79 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...RAG