Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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854 FXUS62 KMFL 082332 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 732 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ACARS data from Miami International Airport (KMIA) over the last several data shows a very strong Saharan Dust induced capping inversion across the area this evening. Evident in the 700-850mb layer, dry air has kept cloud activity very shallow in nature this afternoon outside of a few meager updrafts over inland South Florida. Have reduced rain chances for the region down to 20% for the remainder of the evening based on the latest observational trends. Ample CAPE remains across the area which could support an isolated shower or storm, however the stout capping inversion will suppress any real spatial abundance of activity this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Surface high pressure holds over southern Florida from the Atlantic while a mid-level low drifts southwestward through mid- week. The remnants of Beryl will become absorbed by a longwave trough over the central United States while will pinch the Atlantic high pressure eastward. Besides these features, a Saharan Air Layer will be present over and around the area for a couple of days. With that comes a suppression of convective coverage. Accordingly, have trimmed back rain chances for Tuesday a bit closer to climatology compared to the previously higher PoPs that have been far more common the last few days. While activity today should be later to start, there should be a focus around the State Road 80 corridor and the Lake Okeechobee region later this afternoon into the evening. A similar northerly convective focus is expected on Tuesday as well. Today may be the warmer of the two days with heat index values dipping for Tuesday. Values will still range from 105 to 110 which will likely require consideration of a Heat Advisory for portions, if not all, of South Florida again on Tuesday. Overnight lows will struggle to fall below 80 in many areas and the urban heat islands may not fall below the lower 80s tonight which provides little relief from the heat illness risk. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 346 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Models begin the long term with a remnant cut-off low moving over the Florida Keys and the southern tip of the peninsula, while the rest of the state remains under the influence of the SW periphery of high pressure. This synoptic setup will keep a weather pattern dominated by weak sfc flow and lingering moisture across SoFlo. For Wednesday, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in afternoon, with sea breeze circulations becoming the main focal point for deep convection over land during the early afternoon hours. The bulk of the weather should then favor interior portions of SoFlo during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Storm motion could remain somewhat erratic as outflow boundaries spread across the area. By Thursday, models show a strengthening of the Atlantic high, which brings back a more robust easterly wind regime. Thus, expect afternoon convection to favor the Gulf coast metro areas, with some late morning/early afternoon showers or isolated storms along the east coast metro areas. Temperatures during the long term should remain warm, with afternoon highs reaching the lower 90s across most areas and heat indices in the triple digits. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions and L/V wind flow overnight with sea-breeze circulations picking up after 16-18z tomorrow. Potential exists for SHRA/TSRA to develop tomorrow afternoon, however great uncertainty remains as far as overall coverage. Handled with VCSH/VCTS for now, but may need TEMPOs and amendments as needed. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail across all local waters through Tuesday. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range through this period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters each afternoon, and winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 92 81 92 / 10 40 30 50 West Kendall 78 92 78 92 / 10 40 20 50 Opa-Locka 80 92 80 92 / 20 40 30 50 Homestead 80 91 80 91 / 10 30 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 90 80 90 / 20 40 30 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 91 81 91 / 20 50 30 50 Pembroke Pines 80 94 79 94 / 20 40 30 50 West Palm Beach 79 91 78 91 / 20 50 40 60 Boca Raton 80 92 79 92 / 20 50 30 50 Naples 80 92 79 92 / 10 40 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ063-066>075- 168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...Hadi