894
FXUS62 KMFL 131721
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
121 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A weak flow convective regime began this morning with scattered
showers and thunderstorms slowly arriving from the Atlantic waters.
The 12Z sounding supported an moderately unstable environment
supportive for scattered activity throughout the day with ML CAPE
(2271 J/kg), low-level forcing for ascent, and plentiful moisture
(PWATs = 2.14"). There has been minimal pulse-like convective cells
this morning, with more likely this afternoon, especially when the
Gulf sea breeze kicks in. Any slow moving showers may lead to
downpours with the potential for localized flooding.

On Sunday, a strong Bermuda High and a mid-level ridge will shift
winds to a more easterly flow. Diurnally driven convection will
begin early along the eastern coast, with the highest rainfall
probabilities expected across southwestern Florida and the interior
by the latter part of the day. The presence of a warm air mass and
500mb temperatures remaining in the -5 to -6 degrees C range through
the weekend will likely inhibit the development of robust and severe
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be seasonable to just above normal. Daily maximum
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s, with
possible heat index values reaching 106-107 degrees over portions of
Broward and Miami-Dade counties this afternoon. The heat advisory
continues for those two counties today; however, with building cloud
coverage and showers, they may luck out and keep cooler, avoiding
the intense diurnal heating this afternoon. However, there is
potential for another round tomorrow, with the final decision
expected tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

An extension of the Subtropical Ridge centered over the Western
Atlantic will maintain deep easterly flow across the region. Embedded
within this easterly flow is a fast-moving tropical wave near the
Windward Islands, forecast to reach the Straits of Florida and
the Florida Keys early Monday. This wave will bring deep tropical
moisture, with precipitable water values around 2.3 inches (90th
percentile) and breezy east-southeast winds of 15-20 mph. The
arrival of the tropical wave and associated moisture will result
in numerous showers and thunderstorms, supported by sufficient
forcing and large-scale ascent. This may lead to atypical
convective activity that does not follow the diurnal cycle,
potentially causing heavy rainfall in short periods and localized
flooding.

There exists uncertainty in the forecast regarding the northern extent
of the moisture plume as it approaches our CWA. The ECMWF model
suggests a more southerly track, resulting in lower PWATs over the
area, while the GFS model indicates a more northerly track with
higher moisture content.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal throughout the
long-term period. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 80s
along the east coast and lower 90s across the interior and west
coast. Overnight lows will settle into the mid to upper 70s inland
and on the west coast, and upper 70s to low 80s on the east
coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Some bouts of sub-VFR possible as convection develops along the
Atlantic sea breezes and moves inland. Improvement to VFR is
expected by late afternoon/early evening along the east coast
terminals. APF will see convective activity increase around the
area through the afternoon before it diminishes later in the
evening. Short-fused AMDs may be needed for brief bouts of
IFR/LIFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Easterly flow will generally prevail through the weekend as high
pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic. Seas and wind speeds
will remain well below highlight criteria, ensuring overall
benign boating conditions through early next week. The only
exception will be near any thunderstorms that form, which could
bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Light easterly winds will lead to a low rip current risk along
the Atlantic and Gulf coasts through the weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  92  81  91 /  40  60  30  70
West Kendall     79  93  79  91 /  40  60  30  70
Opa-Locka        81  93  81  92 /  40  50  30  70
Homestead        81  91  81  91 /  40  60  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  81  90  81  90 /  40  50  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  81  91 /  30  50  20  60
Pembroke Pines   81  94  81  93 /  40  50  30  60
West Palm Beach  80  92  80  92 /  30  50  10  60
Boca Raton       81  92  80  91 /  30  50  20  60
Naples           78  93  78  92 /  50  60  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG