581
FXUS62 KMFL 071859
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
259 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Beryl in the northwestern Gulf, a frontal boundary stretched across
the Appalachians and the southeastern United States, and an Atlantic
mid-level low off the Carolinas are the main synoptic scale features
for the short term forecast period. Light southerly wind flow with a
heavy influence from the diurnal sea breeze is expected. Ample
amounts of tropical moisture being transported into the region along
the southerly flow should permit healthy convective coverage this
afternoon and again on Monday.

Hot temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will combine
with the lack of breeze to permit heat index values to climb above
105 across the region both today and again on Monday with a Heat
Advisory necessary today and one likely needed for Monday. Some
pockets of South Florida could see the heat index exceed 110 on late
Monday morning into the afternoon hours. Heat illness will remain a
threat to anyone conducting outdoor activities or labor.

While many of the showers and thunderstorms may not have the
environmental profile or support aloft to create hail or severe wind
gusts, strong wind gusts and frequent to excessive lightning cannot
be ruled out with storms. The slow-moving nature of storms will also
provide the potential for excessive rainfall accumulations that
could saturate a localized area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Anti-cyclonic flow around the base of weak mid-level ridging
situated over the southeastern United States will propagate a
weakening cut-off low southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula on
Tuesday. Both the deterministic 12z European and GFS indicate that
the feature will continue to weaken with a notable degradation in
vorticity and cold pool definition being depicted on various model
guidance. GEFS and EPS ensemble model "camps" also hint at a
similar trajectory and weakening of the cut-off low feature. Even
with the cut-off low losing definition, it`s arrival across our
region will still cool 500mb temperatures slightly from -4C to
-5C down to - 6C to -7C. At the same time, modeling indicates the
potential of a plume of Saharan Dust to be in the vicinity of
South FLorida. While overall coverage of convection may be
suppressed, the influences of S.A.L. (steeper lapse rates, higher
DCAPE) combined with the cooler 500mb temperatures could lead to a
higher localized strong storm potential on Tuesday afternoon.
Examining forecast soundings from Tuesday afternoon hint at this
potential with a mid-level dry air signal, mid-level lapse rates
of 6-6.5 C/km, and forecasted DCAPE values of 900-1100 J/kg.
Differences still exist in model guidance as far as the strength
of the cut- off low at that point as well as the Saharan Dust
Plume, so the evolution of the forecast for Tuesday could very
much change as we move closer in time.

By Wednesday, the leftover energy of the cut-off low advects into
the Florida Keys as South Florida remains underneath the influences
of the mid-level ridge of high pressure situated to the north of the
region. The remainder of the extended period is characterized by a
weak synoptic regime across the region. Given the meager synoptic
pattern aloft, shower and thunderstorms during the first part of the
week will be dictated by prevailing background flow and mesoscale
driven circulations such as the daily Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes,
with convection initiating over the local waters and the coasts each
morning, shifting towards the interior and Gulf coast in the
afternoon and early evening hours. However by Thursday, the re-
establishment of the Bermuda High over the western Atlantic waters
will provide just enough of an easterly component to focus afternoon
convection across the Gulf coast metro areas with some morning
shower activity being possible along the east coast of South
Florida. Temperatures throughout the period will remain warm, with
high temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most areas and heat
indices in the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Sub-VFR possible with any showers and storms that come near
terminals and short-fused AMDs for IFR/LIFR are likely today as the
sea breezes advance inland. A lull is possible late evening into the
early overnight but an early morning return to the convection is
possible on Monday. Southerly flow will be fairly light through the
period outside of convective wind gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Light to moderate southerly winds will prevail across all local
waters through Monday. Seas will remain in the 1 to 3 ft range to
start the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the local waters each afternoon, and winds and waves could be
locally higher in and around showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  94  80  90 /  20  40  20  50
West Kendall     80  95  78  91 /  20  40  10  50
Opa-Locka        81  95  80  91 /  30  40  20  50
Homestead        81  93  80  90 /  30  20  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  81  93  80  89 /  30  40  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  81  93  80  90 /  20  50  20  60
Pembroke Pines   82  96  80  92 /  30  40  20  50
West Palm Beach  80  94  78  90 /  20  60  30  60
Boca Raton       80  94  79  90 /  20  50  30  60
Naples           81  93  80  92 /  30  40  10  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...RAG