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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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650 FXUS62 KMFL 140558 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 158 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A weak flow convective regime began this morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms slowly arriving from the Atlantic waters. The 12Z sounding supported an moderately unstable environment supportive for scattered activity throughout the day with ML CAPE (2271 J/kg), low-level forcing for ascent, and plentiful moisture (PWATs = 2.14"). There has been minimal pulse-like convective cells this morning, with more likely this afternoon, especially when the Gulf sea breeze kicks in. Any slow moving showers may lead to downpours with the potential for localized flooding. On Sunday, a strong Bermuda High and a mid-level ridge will shift winds to a more easterly flow. Diurnally driven convection will begin early along the eastern coast, with the highest rainfall probabilities expected across southwestern Florida and the interior by the latter part of the day. The presence of a warm air mass and 500mb temperatures remaining in the -5 to -6 degrees C range through the weekend will likely inhibit the development of robust and severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will be seasonable to just above normal. Daily maximum temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s, with possible heat index values reaching 106-107 degrees over portions of Broward and Miami-Dade counties this afternoon. The heat advisory continues for those two counties today; however, with building cloud coverage and showers, they may luck out and keep cooler, avoiding the intense diurnal heating this afternoon. However, there is potential for another round tomorrow, with the final decision expected tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 An extension of the Atlantic subtropical ridge will be positioned over SFL to start the upcoming week, maintaining a moderate easterly regime over the area. The axis of a low-amplitude tropical wave will pass south of the area in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, with guidance coming into better agreement that the deeper moisture associated with this feature will largely pass south of the area, although the northern edge of the moisture plume may still reach the southern half of the area. Consequently the best rain chances in the Mon/Tues timeframe should be focused over southern areas, with the highest rainfall amounts anticipated near the SW coast due to enhanced convergence in the easterly regime. Temperatures will remain slightly above average with highs generally in the low 90s, and any potential heat advisory concerns would likely be dependent upon the northward extent of the moisture surge and associated cloud cover/precipitation. Drier air should filter in behind the wave during the mid-week period, with rain chances decreasing to near or (on Wednesday in particular) even below climatology. E-SErly low-lvl flow will favor the best rain chances over the western half of the area. Temperatures should remain near seasonal normals through the period (i.e. highs in the low 90s). Late week, a TUTT like feature will shift westward toward the area, which could result in increasing rain chances for the end of the week, although guidance is not currently in good agreement on the amplitude/track of this feature. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions continue at all terminals through around 14Z with a gentle easterly flow around 8kt, then increasing to around 10-12 kt in the afternoon. VCSH/VCTS also expected after 14-15Z and continue for most of the Atlantic TAF sites through 21Z with MVFR/IFR periods possible. APF should again experience a westerly onshore flow with Gulf breezes during the afternoon hours, along with VCTS through 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Easterly flow will generally prevail through the weekend as high pressure strengthens over the western Atlantic. Seas and wind speeds will remain well below highlight criteria, ensuring overall benign boating conditions through early next week. The only exception will be near any thunderstorms that form, which could bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Light easterly winds will lead to a low rip current risk along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts through the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 92 81 91 81 / 30 40 60 40 West Kendall 93 79 92 78 / 40 40 60 40 Opa-Locka 93 80 92 80 / 40 30 60 40 Homestead 91 81 90 80 / 30 40 60 40 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 90 81 / 30 30 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 91 81 90 81 / 30 30 60 40 Pembroke Pines 94 81 93 80 / 40 30 60 40 West Palm Beach 92 79 91 80 / 40 20 50 30 Boca Raton 92 79 91 80 / 30 30 50 30 Naples 93 78 93 78 / 60 30 70 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...17