975
FXUS62 KMFL 151635
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1235 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A rather strong mid level ridge will continue to remain in place
across the region through the rest of today and into Tuesday. At the
surface, an area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic
will bring east to southeasterly wind flow as a tropical wave pushes
south of the region through the rest of today. At the same time, a
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will continue to slowly push towards the
region as today progresses. While the northern portion of the
tropical wave has helped to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity
over the Atlantic waters earlier this morning, the convection
chances will gradually shift towards the interior and west coast
this afternoon as the sea breezes develop and push inland. With a
lack of mid to upper level support, the chances for strong
thunderstorm development will remain rather limited. However, one or
two strong storms cannot be ruled out later this afternoon mainly
over interior portions of Southwest Florida where the sea breezes
and previous thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide. Most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminsh over land as
the evening progresses. Warm temperatures will remain in place
overnight as lows drop into the mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee
region and into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas.

On Tuesday, as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) continues pushes over the
region, it will introduce a drier air mass across the mid levels
throughout the day. The latest guidance shows PWAT values of 1.3 to
1.5 inches over the eastern half of the region, and 1.5 to 1.7
inches over Southwest Florida. This drier air mass will reduce the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Convection
development will still be sea breeze driven and with the general
synoptic easterly wind flow in place, the highest chances of showers
and storms will remain over the interior and west coast in the
afternoon. While strong thunderstorm development will remain very
limited, it cannot be entirely ruled out especially over interior
portions of Southwest Florida where sea breeze boundaries collide.
The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours.
With reduced shower and thunderstorm coverage, high temperatures
will soar into the lower to mid 90s across most areas. Heat index
values will generally range from 105 to 110 across most areas with
the highest values being found over Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The area will remain positioned along the western periphery
of the broad subtropical ridge through most of the upcoming
week. Light to moderate easterly low-lvl flow will prevail
through most of the extended period, with the mean flow
veering more southeasterly at times late this week. The drier
air mass behind the tropical wave (PWATS generally 1.6-1.8
inches) will largely remain in place for Wednesday so maintained
PoPs a bit below climo (i.e. 25-45% with the best chances over
the west coast). Rain chances will trend closer towards easterly
regime climo (i.e. 50-70%) late this week as a weakening TUTT
approaches the area and PWATs increase back to near climo (albeit
interspersed with occasional drier periods due to minor SAL
intrusions).

Given the influence of the ridge and the somewhat suppressed rain
chances (at least through the first half of the period) seasonably
hot temperatures look likely with highs in the low to mid 90s and
lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Although triple digit heat
indices will be a certainty given those temperatures, there may be
just enough mixing of drier air aloft to keep us below advisory
criteria early in the period, with advisory conditions potentially
returning by the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
ESE winds around 10 kts this afternoon will gradually become light
and variable as the evening progresses. Showers and thunderstorms
over interior and western sections this afternoon will quickly
diminish after sunset. AT KAPF, WSW winds this afternoon will
become light and variable early this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

High pressure centered in the western Atlantic will keep a gentle to
moderate east southeasterly wind flow in place through the middle of
the week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2
feet or less during this time frame. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day.
Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and
storms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

With a moderate onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of
rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches through
the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  92  81  92 /  20  20  10  30
West Kendall     78  92  78  92 /  20  20  10  40
Opa-Locka        81  93  80  92 /  20  20  10  30
Homestead        81  90  80  90 /  20  20  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  81  90  80  90 /  20  20  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  10  30
Pembroke Pines   81  94  80  94 /  20  20  10  30
West Palm Beach  79  92  79  92 /  10  20  10  20
Boca Raton       80  91  79  92 /  10  20  10  30
Naples           77  92  77  93 /  50  60  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CWC