813
FXUS62 KMFL 061144
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
744 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A mid level low in the western Atlantic will slowly move westward
through the weekend and it will remain off the Southeast coast
through the duration of the weekend. As today progresses, some mid
level dry air will push into the region from the northeast along
the outer portions of the mid level low. While convection chances
will still remain sea breeze driven with a rather light surface
wind flow in place, the drier air aloft may help to somewhat limit
the coverage of showers and storms especially in northeastern areas.
The highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain focused
over Southwest Florida, where dry air intrusion will be less and
deeper moisture will be present. With a weak steering flow in place,
any convection that does develop today will be slow moving, leading
to the potential for localized flooding especially along the low
lying and poor drainage areas across Southwest Florida. High
temperatures today will generally range from around 90 across the
east coast to the lower 90s across the interior and west coast.
With the drier air pushing into portions of South Florida, the heat
indices will not be as high as they have been over the past several
days, however, they could range between 100 and 105 across Southwest
Florida.

Heading into Sunday, the drier air across the mid levels will erode
as the day progresses and the surface synoptic wind flow shifts and
becomes more southerly in response to a stalled out frontal boundary
located well to the north across the Southeast as well as Northern
Florida. While the mid level ridge will flatten out a little bit, it
will still continue to influence the weather pattern across South
Florida. The sea breeze boundaries will continue to be the main
component of shower and thunderstorm development as they push inland.
With a light southerly wind flow in place, the highest chances of
convection will be across the Lake Okeechobee region during the
afternoon and evening hours.  With temperatures cooling a little bit
aloft due to the flattening ridge combined with the potential for
some steeper mid level lapse rates, a strong thunderstorm or two
cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon especially across the Lake
Okeechobee area. High temperatures on Sunday will generally rise
into the lower 90s across most areas. Heat indices will generally
range between 100 and 105 across most of the region during this time
frame.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The weather pattern during the early to middle portion of the week
remains rather uncertain and will be influenced by several factors.
The first will be the evolution and direction of the mid level cut
off low in the western Atlantic. The latest ensembles and global
guidance remain in disagreement in the positioning of the mid level
low as it slowly moves towards the Southeast coast. Some of the
guidance has it weakening as it approaches the Carolina coastline
towards the middle of the week, while other guidance shows a stronger
mid level low pushing southwestward towards the Florida coast during
this time frame.

The second factor is the evolution of the potential for a Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) moving towards the region from the southeast. The latest
guidance shows the SAL moving into the region later on Monday and
heading into Tuesday. This would help to introduce some drier air
into the region which could help to limit shower and thunderstorm
activity during this time frame. If the SAL were to miss us and stay
to the south of the region, deeper layer moisture could work into the
region as the mid level low pushes closer to the area. While sea
breeze boundary development will still be the main focus for the
development of showers and thunderstorms, the latest forecast takes
a blend of the models and keeps the chances of convection close to a
typical summertime pattern through the middle of the week. With
winds gradually becoming east to southeasterly during this time
frame, the highest chances will remain over the interior and west
coast each afternoon. High temperatures during the early to middle
portion of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s and lower
90s. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR prevails through the start of the period with light and
variable winds. Light easterly flow returns later this morning,
along with the chance for VCSH along East Coast sites. Confidence
of impacts remains low at this time. APF is more likely to see
SHRA/TSRA later this afternoon. Convection should diminish late
evening into the early overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue
across the local waters today. These winds will become southerly
heading into the second half of the weekend and into the early portion
of next week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at
2 feet or less through the weekend and into the early portion of next
week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.
Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and
storms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip currents
will continue across the Palm Beaches today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  80  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
West Kendall     92  77  92  78 /  50  10  50  20
Opa-Locka        93  80  93  80 /  30  10  50  20
Homestead        91  79  91  80 /  50  10  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  91  80 /  20  10  50  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  80  92  81 /  20  10  50  20
Pembroke Pines   94  79  94  80 /  30  10  50  20
West Palm Beach  92  78  93  79 /  20  10  40  20
Boca Raton       92  79  93  80 /  20  10  40  20
Naples           91  79  92  79 /  60  20  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...RAG