720
FXUS62 KMFL 161349
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
949 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Scattered showers and storms continue to develop this morning and
have started to shift towards the interior as the east coast sea
breeze pushes inland. At the same time, the leading edge of some
mid level drier air is pushing into the region from the western
Atlantic as seen on water vapor imagery. This mid level dry air is
from a Saharan Dust layer pushing into the region from the east.
This, combined with the synoptic east to southeasterly wind flow,
will help to reduce shower and thunderstorm chances over eastern
areas as the day progresses. The highest chances of showers and
storms will remain over Southwest Florida heading into the
afternoon hours where the highest moisture content will remain in
place through most of the day. An isolated strong thunderstorm or
two cannot be ruled out mainly over interior portions of Southwest
Florida where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries interact
and collide with each other. The strongest thunderstorms will be
capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. High
temperatures this afternoon will rise to around 90 along the east
coast to the mid 90s across the interior portions of Southwest
Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Strong ridging in the mid-to-upper levels and surface high
pressure in the Atlantic continues to dominate the weather pattern
for the mid-week period. Winds will continue at a light breeze
out of an east to southeast direction. With high pressure
continuing to be the main influencer on the weather, any rain
chances will be a result of diurnal heating and mesoscale features
such as the sea and gulf breezes. The highest chances will again
be towards the interior and west coast areas given the
predominantly easterly low level flow. However, the amount of
showers and storms for both Tuesday and Wednesday will trend lower
as a light intrusion of Saharan dust allows for some drier air to
mix in as PWATs drop to 1.2-1.4 over most of the South Florida
region on Tuesday. The brunt of the dust plume will stay south of
the Florida Peninsula, but enough will advect in to create a drier
atmosphere. The weaker flow under the ridge may keep the drier
from filtering into western portions of the CWA until late day
Tuesday, which further leads to much higher PoPs in those areas
compared to the east coast metro areas. Tropical moisture will
start to rebound on Wednesday, but conditions will still be
dominated by high pressure and the drier air will linger
especially in the mid-levels. Therefore, while there will be
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms again on Wednesday
it is not expected to be widespread.

Temperatures will continue to hit the low to mid 90s through this
mid-week period and heat indices will continue to hit triple
digits. There will not be a widespread heat advisory issued today
because of the drier air intrusion leading to dew points a few
degrees lower than they have been the last several days.
Nevertheless, a heat advisory is still in effect today for Collier
county as the easterly regime leads to warmer conditions in the
western half of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

South Florida will remain positioned along the western periphery
of the broad subtropical ridge through the rest of this week and
likely for the upcoming weekend. Light to moderate east to
southeasterly low level flow will prevail through most of the
extended period, with the mean flow veering more southeasterly at
times late this week. Rain chances will rebound closer to
climatological norms late this week as a weakening TUTT approaches
the area and PWATs increase back to near normal. With the east to
southeast flow continuing, it is expected that the west coast
will see more showers and thunderstorms compared to the eastern
half of the CWA. That said, the PoPs range disparity will be much
smaller with basically 60-70% PoPs everywhere.

Temperatures look likely in the low to mid 90s for highs and lows
in the upper 70s to lower 80s through the period. Advisory
conditions will continue to be possible each day but have a higher
chance for occurrence late in the week and over the weekend as
moisture levels increase back to near normal for this time of year
and temperatures remain hot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Winds will increase out of the ESE later this morning to around 10
to 15 kts. At KAPF, winds will become SW early in the afternoon
as a Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers will continue over
the east coast this morning. Showers and storms will then shift
and develop over the interior and west coast this afternoon into
the early evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will remain in
place through the mid-week period, thus maintaining the current
east to southeast flow. Overall, benign conditions are expected
with generally light winds and seas of 2 feet or less. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters
each day. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around
showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  81  92  81 /  20  20  40  30
West Kendall     92  78  92  79 /  20  20  50  30
Opa-Locka        93  80  93  81 /  20  10  40  30
Homestead        90  80  90  80 /  20  20  40  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  90  81 /  20  20  40  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  81  91  81 /  20  10  40  20
Pembroke Pines   94  81  94  81 /  20  10  40  30
West Palm Beach  91  79  92  79 /  20  10  30  10
Boca Raton       91  80  92  80 /  20  10  30  20
Naples           92  77  93  79 /  70  40  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069-070.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC