966
FXUS64 KMEG 172025
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
325 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving through the Mid-
South in waves along a stalled frontal boundary for the next
several days. Cooler temperatures are on tap tomorrow onward with
daily rain chances in the 50-60% range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Current radar as of 320 PM depicts the first wave of convection
moving out of the area along a large outflow boundary. A stalled
front oriented SW-NE draped across the CWA will allow for more
rounds of convection to traverse the area as a series of
shortwaves eject from the parent low pressure system over the next
few days. The front looks to slowly retrograde back to the
northwest by Friday evening as it kicks up another round of
showers and thunderstorms. These upcoming waves are expected to be
quite messy convective modes with little to no structure to the
system.

Per WPC`s forecast surface analysis, the aforementioned front
will make little to no southward or eastward progress over the
weekend. As a result, the northwestern half of the area will get
to enjoy a cooler, drier airmass while the southeastern zones are
stuck with more waves of convection and higher humidity on the
warm side of the boundary through Sunday afternoon. Fortunately,
rain and cloud cover will preclude any triple digit heat indices.

A deep upper trough looks to set up over the central CONUS early
next week, which will lead to below normal temperatures for the
remainder of the forecast period. NBM probabilities actually
depict a low chance (less than 30%) of temperatures above 90
degrees anywhere in our CWA from Monday onward. However, a messy
surface pattern with high uncertainty wrt to the location of a
frontal boundary will keep PoPs in the 50-60% range through at
least the middle of next week. In other words, we`re trading heat
for rain. Expect 7-day QPF totals between 1-2 inches for most of
the area.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A messy convective forecast will dominate through the TAF period
as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact terminals.
A brief lull in precipitation should occur later this afternoon
with winds shifting north. 12Z CAMs continue to suggest potential
for another round of convection developing overnight. Confidence
for timing and location of this is low, so kept PROB30 groups in
TAF. Low MVFR CIGs may materialize overnight within storms.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ010>013-015>017-
     020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...ANS