402
FXUS64 KMEG 051136 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
636 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A bit cooler day is on tap for the Mid-South as sporadic showers and
thunderstorms continue to spread across the area, ahead of a cold
front. Heat index values still look to remain at or above 105 in
portions of northern Mississippi, resulting in a Heat Advisory in
these areas today. A few strong to severe storms may be capable of
producing damaging winds, small hail, and localized heavy
rainfall today. A brief lull in precipitation will exist Saturday
and Sunday as high pressure moves across the area. Rain chances
will ramp up once again Monday through through next work-week. As
a result of increased rainfall, temperatures will be a bit cooler
through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Another warm night is on display at this hour as current
temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s with mostly light winds
at the surface. A decent stratus deck continues to push
east/southeast across areas mainly north of I-40, with the movement
of convection. Current NQA indicated radar imagery depicts an
outflow dominant, line of convection moving east/southeast across
northeast Arkansas and West Tennessee. As this line continues to
push across areas mainly north of I-40, small hail, sub-severe
winds, and localized heavy rainfall will be possible. One thing to
note is the environment this line is entering into. Around
2500-3000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, around 30-35 kts of
Effective Shear, and current dewpoints in the upper 70s to low
80s are present. Severe chances moving forward, this morning,
will be dependent on the outflow boundary out in front of this
line.

Yesterday`s 596 dm subtropical ridge has built south/southeast of
our area, though we remain pretty hot and humid across the Mid-
South. A slow moving cold front, currently extending from southeast
Missouri through the ArkLaTex region, will continue to push east
through the day, powering showers and thunderstorms out in front of
it. This front in combination with increased rainfall and cloud
cover will lead to decreased afternoon highs today, though portions
of northern Mississippi will likely see heat index values >=105 F as
dewpoints once again surge into the upper 70s to low 80s in these
areas. These areas will go under a Heat Advisory beginning at 9 this
morning and extending through 8 this evening.

Today will hopefully be our last day under heat headlines as the
aforementioned cold front moves through and leaves temperatures
in the upper 80s to lower 90s through next week. Dewpoint
temperatures will also decrease significantly, behind this front,
hopefully keep humid conditions away from the Mid-South.

Current PWATs are around 2.2" and will remain around 2-2.25",
nearing the 90th-97th percentile for this time of year. Large
rainfall rates will continue to result in a localized heavy
rainfall threat for today. A brief lull in precipitation looks to
exist tomorrow and Sunday as high pressure and quasi-zonal flow
looks to move over the region. Showers and thunderstorms will head
back into the forecast Monday morning as a positively tilted
trough axis looks to push in from the West with a possible
combination and lift from Hurricane Beryl. Though uncertainty
remains high on onset impacts, showers and thunderstorms remain in
the forecast through at least mid-week. We will continue to
monitor for now. Stay tuned.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Ongoing TSRA near and east of LIT was not initialized in the 10Z
HRRR or the other CAMs. Current development trajectory of this
convection is ESE based on GOES imagery. This activity should
remain south of MEM through the morning, but will need monitoring
for additional development as a weak cold front approaches from
the northwest.

Storms will likely redevelop south of TUP along an outflow
boundary after 21Z, then diminish with loss of surface heating.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ010-011-015>017-
     020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB