628
FXUS64 KMAF 191759
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1259 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

WV imagery shows an upper ridge centered over Arizona this
morning, buttressed by a broad trough along or east of the MS
Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under
meridional flow aloft. KMAF VWP shows a negligible LLJ this
morning, in alignment w/hi-res models. This, despite a few
mid/high clouds, will allow radiational cooling to kick in, and
overnight lows will cool too just 2-4 F above normal.

However, for those averse to warmer temperatures, the next couple
of days do not bode well. Although the upper ridge is forecast to
drift northwest, centering over the junction of AZ/CA/NV by
Saturday afternoon, thicknesses are nevertheless set to increase.
Highs this afternoon will increase ~ 5-7 F over yesterday`s,
ending up w/in a degree or so of normal most locations.
Southeasterly upslope flow will favor diurnally-driven junky
storms over the higher terrain, assisted by impulses moving south
through flow aloft.

This activity will slowly diminish tonight as a 25+kt LLJ
develops. While nothing to write home about as far as LLJ`s go,
this will maintain enough mixing to keep overnight minimums a
degree or two above tonight`s.

Saturday, as mentioned above, will be warmer than today, but only
by a degree or two. This should be the warmest day this
forecast, as large-scale troughing will force its way into Texas
beginning Sunday to ruin things. The upshot of this is models
developing fairly good chances of convection to the west and north
of the area, giving the northeast CWA a shot at a little relief.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A fairly typical summer pattern continues into the latter half of
the weekend. An upper level ridge remains across the Four
Corners/Great Basin allowing for northwest flow aloft across our
area. Shortwave troughs will ride the ridge southward into the
Southern Plains bringing weak fronts along with rain chances from
Sunday through Tuesday. Guidance suggests PWATs between 1.5-1.75"
moving into areas east of the Pecos River with PWATs between an inch
to 1.5" to the west. Some spots may see up to an inch of rain, but
amounts look to stay well below that between Sunday and Tuesday.
With the passage of each front, afternoon highs trend into the 80s
for most with 90s reserved for the normal hot spots. Lows settle
into the 60s due in part to rain and clouds. As rain chances
diminish through the week, temperatures tick back up into the low
90s. Overall, a cooler and wetter stretch is looking more likely.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. There may be
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, possibly impacting CNM
and HOB, but low confidence and low probability preclude mention.
Winds will generally be southeasterly, shifting a bit more
southerly after 20/06Z, especially for western terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  98  73  91 /   0  20  20  60
Carlsbad                 72  96  72  87 /  10  30  50  70
Dryden                   73 100  74  96 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Stockton            72  98  74  92 /   0  10  10  60
Guadalupe Pass           69  87  67  78 /  10  40  50  80
Hobbs                    69  94  69  87 /  10  30  50  70
Marfa                    63  92  65  86 /  10  20  10  70
Midland Intl Airport     73  96  74  89 /   0  20  20  60
Odessa                   74  96  74  89 /   0  20  20  60
Wink                     73  99  75  92 /   0  20  20  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...84