468
FXUS64 KMAF 192038
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
338 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

This afternoon, temperatures are a few degrees warmer than the same
time yesterday, with most locations on their way to highs in the
90s, with 80s in the mountains, and lower 100s along the Rio Grande
in the Big Bend. Without the focus of a boundary, storms today have
been slower to initiate this afternoon, with only a few faint echoes
starting to pop up over the Davis Mountains. Expect storms that
develop the next few hours to be focused across western areas from
Southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains south into the
Davis Mountains, with potential for some eastward motion depending
on outflow boundary interactions. Severe weather is not expected,
with brief downpours and gusty winds the primary concerns. Storms
will largely diminish after sunset, with potential for late night
storms over portions of Southeast New Mexico, dependent upon
convective trends further north. Tonight, lows will be similar to
the past few nights with little change to antecedent conditions,
dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70 for most.

Saturday will be the last "hot" day of the forecast for several
days, with highs topping out a couple degrees warmer than today, in
the middle 90s across the plains, upper 80s and lower 90s in the
mountains, and 100s along the Rio Grande and portions of the Pecos
Valley. Diurnal thunderstorm chances also continue Saturday, with
the best chance once again across the higher terrain and adjacent
plains to the west given continued easterly to southeasterly upslope
flow. However, a convectively reinforced boundary is progged to edge
into the Permian Basin during the afternoon, acting as a focus for
additional storm development further east. Unlike prior days, storms
will continue into Saturday night along the aforementioned boundary
and as large-scale troughing develops over Texas as the persistent
Four Corners Ridge retrogrades across the Great Basin. These
increased rain chances are merely a precursor to the significant
uptick in precipitation potential late weekend and early next week,
details on which can be found in the Long Term Discussion below. For
those longing for rain and cooler temperatures, you just need to
make it one more day!

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

We`re still expecting a period of cooler and wetter conditions
across the forecast area early next week. This is all possible due
to the upper ridge continuing to meander westward this weekend,
opening the door for large scale troughing to set up over the Great
Plains. Embedded within this troughing pattern, numerous shortwaves
are set to move through the southern Plains, helping to provide
synoptic ascent nearly each afternoon corresponding to some cold
fronts set to move in as well. The first front/outflow that pushes
in sometime Saturday afternoon/evening helps kick off scattered
thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon with a secondary front arriving by
Monday afternoon, providing a second round of showers and
thunderstorms for the Permian Basin and the best rain chances for
this entire event. PoPs are as high as 70-90% across the region for
Monday afternoon out of the NBM, which I do have some concerns that
this and overall expected QPF may be a bit overdone looking at some
of the better resolution guidance still favoring convective
complexes...but we`ll see how this trends as we get more in the
range of high resolution guidance. By Tuesday, the front that kicked
off Monday`s storms should be further south, focusing the worthwhile
storm chances to along and south of I-10. By Wednesday, the upper
trough begins to lift away, the western US ridging is able to slowly
work its way east for the latter half of the week, slowly
restricting the storms more and more to the Davis Mountains. With
the fronts and added clouds/precipitation in the area, pleasantly
cool temperatures for mid-late July are on tap with high
temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 80s Sunday through Wednesday.
With the highest PoPs, Monday also looks to be the coolest day of
the long term with many spots likely not even getting out of the
70s. Temperatures moderate midweek but should still stay a few
degrees below normal.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. There may be
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, possibly impacting CNM
and HOB, but low confidence and low probability preclude mention.
Winds will generally be southeasterly, shifting a bit more
southerly after 20/06Z, especially for western terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  98  73  91 /   0  20  20  50
Carlsbad                 72  96  72  87 /  10  30  50  60
Dryden                   73 100  74  97 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton            72  98  74  94 /   0  10  10  40
Guadalupe Pass           69  87  67  80 /  10  40  50  60
Hobbs                    69  94  69  87 /  10  30  50  60
Marfa                    63  92  65  88 /  10  20  10  50
Midland Intl Airport     73  96  74  89 /   0  20  20  50
Odessa                   74  96  74  89 /   0  20  20  50
Wink                     73  99  75  91 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...84