Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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651 FXUS64 KMAF 190434 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1134 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing most of the day along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary, currently located south and west of the Pecos River. These storms have remained sub-severe, though gusty winds and small hail are possible, along with locally heavy rain and perhaps blowing dust, particularly near open fields and work sites. Additional storms are starting to develop over eastern New Mexico, with additional development possible into this evening as storms move off of the higher terrain. Again, gusty winds, hail, and lightning will be possible. Otherwise, a "cool" day is underway, with most locations in the middle 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, save for the Big Bend and locations along the Rio Grande where middle to upper 90s are more prevalent. High-resolution guidance is in agreement regarding a gradual weakening trend of convection after sunset, though showers and storms may linger over portions of Southeast New Mexico, dependent on convective trends this afternoon and early evening. Lows tonight will be fairly close to normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s for most,given lingering cloud cover and continued easterly to southeasterly surface flow. On Friday, temperatures are progged to tick up a few degrees over this afternoon`s highs, topping out in the lower to middle 90s across the plains, upper 80s in the mountains, and lower 100s along the Rio Grande Valley. Given high pressure remaining anchored over the Four Corners Region and a trough over the east, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible, especially along and west of the Pecos River in closer proximity of the higher terrain, though a few storms could develop eastward into the Permian Basin. Much of the activity will be dependent on residual boundaries from prior convection, and potential propagation along outflow boundaries once convection is underway. Fortunately, severe weather is not expected, with locally heavy rain the main concern. Similar to today, storms should diminish through late evening with the loss of heating, with lows once again in the upper 60s to middle 70s for most. JP && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 We`re continuing to monitor a convectively modified cold front that has surged southward into northern Lea through the northeastern Permian Basin this afternoon. We are already seeing thunderstorm development along this boundary, with scattered thunderstorms possible for the central and northern/eastern Permian Basin through the remainder of the afternoon in addition to the typical diurnally driven storms found across the Davis Mountains. The ongoing and continued storm activity will continue progressing the cold front southwestward towards the Pecos Valley this afternoon and evening, with a stray shower or two possible as the boundary pushes along. While most of today`s precipitation is driven by mesoscale features, it is still aided by slightly decreased synoptic subsidence as the upper ridge that has been in control the last few days has nudged westward closer to the AZ/NM border. This has also allowed high temperatures to nudge down a degree or two compared to yesterday. For those in the northern/eastern Permian Basin already behind the front, the temperatures are already falling and the high temperatures have only reached the low to mid 90s. Moving into early tomorrow, high resolution model guidance is consistent that a separate outflow boundary will come in behind our cold/stalled front and help initiate more showers and thunderstorms in the south central Permian Basin around 12-14z Thursday morning. Between the outflow from these storms, the lingering stalled front from today, a further westward displaced ridge, and diurnal heating, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon generally along/west of the Pecos River and western high terrain. Behind the front and with the added effect of clouds and precipitation, high temperatures will be noticeably cooler than today, only topping out in the low 90s for most and the upper 80s for the higher elevations. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by late morning, w/bases 5-7 kft AGL. Convection will be possible, mainly KCNM/KPEQ, but chances are too low to warrant a mention attm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 30 Carlsbad 72 95 72 94 / 20 20 20 50 Dryden 73 97 73 99 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 71 96 73 98 / 10 10 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 67 86 69 87 / 30 30 20 60 Hobbs 68 94 70 93 / 10 10 20 40 Marfa 64 89 64 91 / 30 30 20 40 Midland Intl Airport 71 94 73 96 / 0 0 0 20 Odessa 72 94 74 96 / 0 10 0 20 Wink 73 97 74 98 / 10 10 10 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44