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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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121 FXUS64 KMAF 081708 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Convection from last evening has finally either died off or moved east early this morning. Outflow winds remain but are diminishing and should not be confused with a cold front that we are expecting later today. Current observations show that the front is in the South Plains and should arrive in the Permian Basin after sunrise. It`s hard to tell at this time if the recent storms will affect potential rainfall behind the front. NBM guidance shows decent PoPs this afternoon as low level overrunning is helped by an upper disturbance moving southeast across the area. Hi-res models don`t show this, but didn`t handle yesterday`s precip well so that may not mean much. Stayed with NBM on PoPs and have undercut temps this afternoon by a couple of degrees due to early frontal passage. Dry air behind the front will help temps drop into the low 70s to upper 60s yielding a nice morning Tuesday. Temperatures increase slightly Tuesday and upslope flow west of the Pecos River will help scattered showers and storms to develop in the mountains. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The long term period features a relatively quiet pattern along with fairly stable high temperatures as an upper ridge meanders from southern California into the Four Corners region by the end of the week. High temperatures generally range in the low to mid 90s for most each afternoon from Wednesday through the end of the week. With northerly upper flow and subsidence found on the southwestern periphery of the ridge, any storm activity will largely be confined to the Davis Mountains and western high terrain throughout the week. Looking ahead into the far extended for early next week, ensembles are hinting that as the upper ridge transitions into the south central Plains, an inverted trough may sneak in on the south side of it. This probably won`t amount to much...but in theory, it could enhance rain chances outside of the mountains. At the very least, it prevents high heat from building and keeps temperatures near normal for mid July. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 MVFR CIGs and VIS or lower will continue in heavier showers and storms at MAF and terminals over southeast Permian Basin, then lingering MVFR CIGs can be expected for a few more hours before CIGs lift to VFR. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning will be main threats at terminals impacted by storms, although hail cannot be ruled out. Northeast to east winds remain gusty at all terminals until 04Z-06Z Tuesday, after which winds become less gusty and decrease in speed. Winds become more easterly over Stockton Plateau and Reeves County plains by 06Z and over SE NM plains by 15Z Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 68 93 69 96 / 20 10 10 20 Carlsbad 69 91 70 93 / 40 20 20 40 Dryden 74 96 74 96 / 20 30 10 20 Fort Stockton 71 91 72 96 / 30 40 10 30 Guadalupe Pass 63 84 67 86 / 30 30 30 50 Hobbs 63 89 67 91 / 40 10 20 30 Marfa 63 86 62 89 / 40 70 30 50 Midland Intl Airport 69 92 70 94 / 30 20 10 20 Odessa 69 91 71 94 / 30 20 10 20 Wink 71 92 73 96 / 40 20 20 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...94