058
FXUS64 KMAF 062242
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

We continue to be influenced by easterly winds which is helping
keep temperatures below normal again today. Seeing a few storms
already developing in the Davis Mountains and vicinity and this is
likely where most of the convection will stay today. We could see
a few storms develop in the Permian Basin just due to daytime
heating, but they will be isolated at best.

Expect another nice night with low slightly below normal in the
upper 60s to near 70 with storms dissipating near or just after
midnight. Sunday looks mostly quiet weatherwise with isolated
storms again across the Davis Mountains. We will need to monitor
for convection to the north that could roll into the region late
Sunday night into Monday morning. The one big thing that will be
different is the comeback of the heat for one day. Mid level
thermal ridging will briefly nose into the region sending highs
back into the 100s for most locations. Temperatures under 105 are
expected across Eddy county through the Pecos River Valley with
near 110 along the Rio Grande. Will hold off on a Heat Advisory
right now as will don`t quite reach criteria. Luckily this is a
one day event with cooler conditions on the way!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Highs begin the week near to below average and mainly in the 90s,
80s over northern areas of Lea County and Permian Basin as well
as higher elevations, and triple digits confined to the Rio
Grande. This push of cooler air will be reinforced by both a cold
front moving back south and a persistent long wave trough over the
central US surrounded on both sides by a bifurcated ridge.
Tuesday is still on track to be the coolest day of the long term,
with highs only reaching the 80s as far south as southern SE NM
plains, central Permian Basin, and southern portion of the
Stockton Plateau, with 90s in the other areas aside from triple
digits right along the Rio Grande. As a result of cooler
temperatures behind the front, lower highs for Monday and Tuesday
in recent NBM runs, and expecting NBM to run too warm, went with
NBM 25th percentile for highs Monday and 1:1 blend of NBM and NBM
25th percentile for highs Tuesday. As the front stalls and washes
out, a warming trend ensues this week as persistent troughing over
the central CONUS eases and ridging expands out of the western
CONUS, with strongest flow aloft being pushed northward along the
US-Canada border. As a result, highs rise back up into the upper
90s to triple digits by Wednesday, and triple digits outside of
the Rio Grande will again make an appearance over eastern Permian
Basin as well as Reeves County plains and western Permian Basin
along the Pecos River by Saturday. Lows Monday night and Tuesday
night drop below the 70s for most places other than near the Rio
Grande and along the Pecos River. As with highs, low temperatures
begin an increasing trend midweek, with lows only falling into
the 70s over most of the Permian Basin and Eddy County Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday nights, and lows only falling into the 70s
and above over most of the area aside from northern Lea County,
Guadalupes, and Marfa Plateau into Trans Pecos Saturday night.

Rain chances and totals have continued to decrease from previous
runs. Unfortunately, best chance of storms only looks to occur
within a small window Monday into Tuesday morning. Grids indicate
isolated to scattered storms mainly over SE NM plains behind the
front, as remnants of Beryl look to track well to the northeast
and away from the area, with associated greater moisture and lift
well to the east of our area. By Tuesday afternoon, the front
pushing south and washing out over N MX will mark resumption for
the rest of the long term of the pattern of daytime showers and
storms owing mostly to heating of elevated terrain each afternoon.
Widespread severe is not expected with these storms, with the
main risk being lightning and gusty, erratic winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR continues with light southeast winds outside of any outflow
boundaries. Storms should remain outside of TAF boundaries but
could get close to KFST and KMAF. Will amend as needed for these
boundaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74 103  74  91 /  10  10  20  20
Carlsbad                 73 103  71  90 /  10   0   0  30
Dryden                   73 101  76  96 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            74 103  75  96 /  10  10   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           70  95  68  84 /  20   0   0  30
Hobbs                    71 102  69  87 /   0   0  10  40
Marfa                    62  95  64  93 /  20  20  10  50
Midland Intl Airport     74 101  73  91 /   0  10  10  20
Odessa                   75 101  74  91 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                     75 105  76  96 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29