545
FXUS64 KMAF 120516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Isolated convection over the Davis and Chisos mountains will
diminish around sunset. Not expecting much from these storms other
than lightning and brief heavy rain.  Skies will clear by sunset.
Expect near normal lows tonight with temperatures ranging from the
mid 50s at higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along
the Rio Grande. Light south to southeasterly winds will prevail
overnight, and in fact, through the short term portion of this
forecast. Sunny conditions will prevail Friday with near-normal
highs ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations of the mountains
to around 104 at Rio Grande Village in Big Bend National Park. As
with this afternoon, there should be isolated (< 15% chance)
coverage of thunderstorms over the Davis Mountains and the Big Bend.
Lows Friday night will mirror tonight`s lows, ranging from the mid
50s at the higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along
the Rio Grande under mostly clear skies. -bc

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

This weekend maintains the rather benign weather pattern that we
have been stuck with for the last several days. A strong upper-high
remains roughly centered over the Four Corners. Another broad area
of high pressure is located over the southeastern United States with
general troughing across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Being
caught in between all these features means we see very little
fanfare. Temperatures each afternoon remain near normal, in the 90s
for most, with warm but seasonal low temperatures in the 70s. Rain
chances look bleak for the majority as any hope remains confined to
the higher elevations and Big Bend. The higher elevations benefit
from diurnally driven topographic convection each afternoon, though
coverage remains scattered. The Big Bend benefits from its closer
proximity to an easterly wave moving through northern Mexico.

Things become a bit more interesting heading into next week. The
upper-high near the Four Corners begins to weaken slightly and shift
slightly further north. At the same time the southeastern ridge
becomes an upper-high as it becomes centered over the Southern
States. Being between these two features sets up an inverted trough
over our region. Within this trough, eastern tropical waves try to
sneak into our area. By the middle of the week, deterministic and
ensemble guidance are hinting at the potential for a developing
upper-low very near us. Regardless of the exact outcome, rain
chances should generally be on the increase for the region,
especially with southwestern extent. The Permian Basin may not be
wholly left out either. Outside of the rain chances, temperatures
remain as they were each day.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR will prevail with southeast winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  96  72  96 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                   72  90  73  91 /   0  30  20  30
Fort Stockton            69  93  71  92 /   0  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           65  87  65  85 /   0  10  10  30
Hobbs                    67  94  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    60  87  62  83 /  10  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport     70  93  72  93 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   72  93  72  93 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                     72  97  73  96 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...29