Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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863 FXUS64 KLZK 051139 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 639 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 411 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Regional WSR-88D radars depicted showers and thunderstorms ongoing across portions of Cntrl, Ern, into much of Nrn AR early this Friday morning. Analyzing the surface map, a cold front extended from an area of low pressure over Srn MN, stretching back to the SW invof KS/MO/AR/OK borders into Cntrl portions of OK. This cold front is progged to sweep across the state today bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to a larger portion of AR along and ahead of the boundary. Activity will be most pronounced over NWrn AR this morning, pushing into Cntrl AR later this morning becoming widely scattered coverage, and into Srn AR by this afternoon with activity redeveloping due to daytime heating. Not all locations are expected to see rainfall but the PoPs are there to cover the spotty nature of precipitation. Temperatures will be kept in check thanks to increased cloud cover and scattered rainfall with most locations topping out in the mid 80s N to mid 90s over far S AR. Ahead of the cold front, some diurnal warming from lack of cloud cover in conjunction with higher dew points may result in a few to several hour window of heat index values reaching or slightly exceeding 105 degrees, thus the issuance of a heat advisory across the three SE-most counties in the LZK CWA. Eventually, clouds and precipitation are anticipated to build into this region, bringing relief and cooler conditions. By Friday evening into Friday night, winds will switch to the N at all locations with the passage of the front. Cooler and drier air will advect into the region into Saturday. Surface high pressure will settle into the state bringing quiet conditions to end the short term. Temperatures on Saturday should be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight lows Friday and Saturday nights should be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 411 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Large scale troughing will be noted in most areas east of the Rockies in the extended period, with significant ridging in the western United States and some ridging over the southeast states. This will keep us out of the excessive heat business, and there will be better chances of rain. The period will begin with a boundary lifting northward into Arkansas from the Gulf Coast on Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon in all but the northeast. A west/northwest flow aloft will drive a cold front into the region from the Plains on Monday. The front will likely stall across the central/southern counties, with hit/miss precipitation surrounding the front for several days. Complicating matters will be the remnants of tropical system Beryl. Initially, the system will be well to our south in Texas, but some data has it heading toward us. Should this happen, tropical moisture would come into play. Chances of rain would increase, along with the potential of heavier downpours/flash flooding. Data is suggesting an arrival by Wednesday/Thursday, and will monitor this closely. As far as temperatures, readings will be at/slightly blow average through the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 MVFR/IFR conds are expected near TSRA/SHRA, otherwise mainly VFR conds should prevail. TSRA/SHRA will move from NW to SE along and ahead of a cold front. Conds will improve in the wake of the boundary with clouds gradually dissipating. Winds will switch from the S/SW to the N behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 90 67 91 67 / 20 0 0 0 Camden AR 93 69 93 69 / 50 10 10 0 Harrison AR 86 63 89 66 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 92 70 92 69 / 40 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 92 72 92 72 / 40 0 0 0 Monticello AR 92 72 92 71 / 60 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 89 67 91 67 / 40 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 87 64 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 89 68 89 68 / 20 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 91 70 91 70 / 40 0 0 0 Russellville AR 91 69 92 69 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 91 68 91 68 / 20 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 89 71 89 70 / 40 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ065-068-069. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...70