878
FXUS64 KLUB 112337
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
637 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The synoptic pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours as
upper level ridging remains centered over the desert southwest and
weak northerly flow aloft continues over West Texas. Rapid surface
warming and some residual midlevel moisture has once again resulted
in the development of a cumulus field over much of the region early
this afternoon. A few isolated thunderstorms are still expected to
develop and persist through evening as the cumulus field gradually
deepens. However, overall coverage will be less than observed over
the past few days given a slightly drier atmosphere and modest
mid/upper level height rises. Still, a few strong wind gusts and
brief downpours may occur through the evening before convection
dissipates after sunset, with quiet and seasonably mild weather
expected overnight. The upper ridge will shift a bit farther
eastward on Friday, with the associated increase in subsidence
resulting in a dry day across our area. Increased layer thicknesses
will result in a slight warm up as well, with high temperatures
Friday afternoon reaching the mid/upper 90s on the Caprock with low
100s east of the escarpment.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A pleasant weekend is expected under a large upper ridge centered
over the Mountain West, with mostly sunny skies, generally light
winds and highs in the mid 90s. Weak retrograding shortwaves moving
through Monday and Tuesday may help trigger a few isolated storms in
the afternoon/evening hours aided by the building instability during
the day. Mid-to-late week continues to look the most favorable for
storm chances. A large upper low over the James Bay region in Canada
will extend a trough all the way into our area. Subsequently a
surface front will move through sometime Wednesday into Thursday.
This will bring shift the low-level flow to easterly and thus allow
for increase moisture advection into the region, hence the increased
PoPs. However, it remains too early to determine any specific
details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Showers and thunderstorms near CDS will continue to dissipate
early this evening with dry conditions prevailing through the
night. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF
period. Isolated showers and storms may develop primarily south of
LBB tomorrow afternoon but the TAF sites should remain dry.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...58