Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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782 FXUS64 KLUB 021938 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 An upper level shortwave will pass through northern portions of our area this evening. Combined with a somewhat-strong 850 mb LLJ, building instability today in mostly sunny skies, and modest mid- level moisture, chances for showers and thunderstorms have been retained in the current forecast. The instability axis generally runs north and west of Lubbock and given the position of the aforementioned shortwave, greatest chances exist across the far southwest TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. Storms are not expected to be severe, but a few storms may produce strong winds and brief heavy downpours. A few showers may linger over the far southeast Panhandle this evening, however everything should mostly diminish after sunset. The pattern for Tuesday looks to be quite similar to that of today and the forecast remains almost identical, with only slightly higher chances to the northwest as another shortwave moves through that area. Triple-digit heat will continue Tuesday as well, albeit a degree or two cooler. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The majority of guidance suggests that gradually weakening t-storm and shower activity will linger across the area into Wednesday night, again with the best chances located across roughly the western and northern portions of the forecast area corresponding to proximity to lift from the upper trough and the narrow sub- tropical moisture plume. Then we turn our attention to the cold front dropping south through the High Plains Thursday which will usher in some cooler temperatures and better rain chances. The morning guidance is in pretty good agreement with previous runs that the front will be on the doorstep of our northern counties by 7pm Thursday evening. This means that our forecast area will be also to heat up one more day south of the front, so Thursday will still be hot with highs mainly in the middle 90s to about 103 or 104. As the upper-wave moves overhead, guidance has been fairly consistently showing isolated to scattered late day t-storms developing along the surface trough near the Texas-New Mexico state line with another area along the front in the central and southern Texas Panhandle. As the front progresses south through the forecast area Thursday evening, storm chances will increase/spread across the remainder of the forecast area. Right not this activity is expected to remain scattered in nature, however, lightning occurring with some storms could coincide with outdoor firework activities and possibly cause some delays. We still expect Friday to the the coolest day in the 7-day forecast, with highs only in the 80s north of the front, although the extent of cloud cover and shower/t-storm activity is a bit of a question mark. There will be ample moisture and some large-scale ascent associated with the trough, but without our typical strong surface heating this time of year we could remain too stable for more than light showers. Northwest flow aloft will persist through the weekend into early next week as an upper ridge amplifies up the West Coast. This should bring a period of relatively cool (near-average) temperatures and keep rain chances going with several shortwaves passing through the northwest flow. There`s even the possibility of another front around Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Thunderstorms are possible at KLBB and KPVW this evening, however as confidence remains low that they will make it very far to the southeast, only VCTS has been included in the latest TAFs. VFR will persist. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ026-032-038-044. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...19