Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
838 FXUS64 KLUB 050003 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 703 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Today`s jet runs from the Pacific NW into the central Plains thence up into New England and the Canadian Maritimes. This broad trough is helping to drive a frontal system through the area (more about that later.) Little change is expected with the general location of the jet though some variability in speed will be noted as impulses progress along the jet path well to our north. Synoptically, we`ll see a fairly stable pattern over the next 24 hours. A cold front continues to slowly drift southward and, as of early this afternoon, was situated from near Muleshoe to Turkey. Given the heating south of the boundary, decent southerly winds, and other factors, would suspect we`ll see a continued slowing of the frontal progress for a few hours. That is, until convective initiation occurs. At this point, it looks as if we`ll be seeing scattered storms develop by mid-afternoon with a general increase in coverage as the afternoon and evening progresses. Pinpointing exactly who will get rain and when is tricky at best. In weakly forced situations, such as today, the front will likely be the initial forcing mechanism to get things going. Thereafter, cold pool processes, outflow mergers, and such will drive the evolution and location. Unfortunately, modeling is not sufficiently good, with the limited upper air observations, to really refine such detail...particularly before convective initiation. As such, we will broadbrush POPs to cover the expected situation. The area south of a line from Muleshoe to Happy and north of a line from Lamesa to Aspermont looks to have the greatest risk of storms impacting evening activities. Wind gusts to 60 mph still look reasonable given dry sub-cloud thermal profiles though a bit higher cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms. The hail threat does not look overly high given limited instability and mild shear. Lightning will be present with most storms this evening. It should be noted that most storms should be fairly short lived at any given location, 30 mins to perhaps an hour though training of multiple storms over the area (west to east) may be possible in limited form. There are some solutions depicting persistent storms to continue overnight, particularly north of the frontal boundary. We are getting to that time of year which that phenomenon is possible, but we will have to see how this evening`s evolution progresses first. Guidance does not normally handle overnight persistent convection well during the summer months nor is it often associated with a frontal boundary. Alas, sometimes it is. Toward Friday morning, we should, at least, see some return of stratus which would give us a bit of a cloudy start to the day around the H8 level. Skies should scatter out during the late morning and early afternoon with another opportunity for scattered thunderstorm activity starting Friday afternoon into the evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A fairly active weather pattern remains expected through much of next week. An upper shortwave ejecting out of the Rockies will lead to more potential for showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. Warmer SSW flow on Sunday will bring temperatures back into the mid 90s to near 100 for portions of the region before a cold front moves through Sunday night into Monday leading to more storm chances. Latest long-term guidance keeps a majority of the moisture next week generally south and east of the CWA, however the persistent moist ESE low-level flow and the NW flow aloft would suggest that the storm chances would continue. Highs beginning Monday will be a bit cooler ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Scattered to broken convection exists along a frontal zone which extends from southwest OK through the central and southwest South Plains as of this writing. All of this activity will gradually sag east and southeastward before diminishing later this evening/night. LBB will have a thunderstorm affecting the terminal at the start of the TAF, while the bulk of the activity will likely avoid PVW and CDS. Hence, have only included VCTS at the northern terminals, but will monitor and amend if a rogue storm threatens those sites. Strong, erratic winds and reduced visibility in heavy downpours will be the greatest threats with any more intense cores. Quieter conditions will follow later this evening as cooler air moves in on northeasterly breezes. It does appear a period of MVFR (perhaps even briefly IFR) cigs will follow well behind the front toward Friday morning, returning to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. After this evening`s convection, there with be additional rain/storm chances on Friday, though confidence in location/timing remain low and have been omitted from the TAFs ATTM. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...23