782
FXUS64 KLUB 081943
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
243 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Upper level water vapor satellite imagery shows a positively tilted
trough stretching from Colorado`s Front Range to southern Minnesota,
and a high pressure system persisting over California. The trough is
expected to shift eastward through the short term period. In its
wake, increasing subsidence will overspread the forecast area.

This afternoon, several outflow boundaries are evident on visible
imagery across eastern New Mexico, and a Cu field indicates some
instability in this region. With steering flow from the northwest
today, showers and thunderstorms that form in eastern NM may
propagate into the far southwest TXPH and western South Plains late
this afternoon and into the evening. However, with increasing
subsidence aloft, precipitation should wind down by midnight, with
decreasing clouds overnight. Radiational cooling due to the clear
skies and light winds should yield slightly cooler than normal low
temperatures. Given the moisture from this morning`s rains and the
relatively cooler lows, there is a potential for patchy fog around
sunrise, though confidence remains low. Tuesday`s highs return to
near average, with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than this
afternoon and winds remaining light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

An upper shortwave will propagate through the area Tuesday evening,
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the far southwest
Panhandle and western South Plains. Notably the 12z HRRR indicates
storms making it as far as the I-27 corridor, thus 10-20% PoPs have
been extended farther east to account for this. However, severe
weather is not expected at this time. Another upper wave will move
through on Wednesday and this combined with slightly increased
forcing/low level winds will bring another round of potential
showers and storms for much of the forecast area. The cap will
become slightly stronger later in the week helping to curtail any
additional storm development and there are no mentionable PoPs
beyond Wednesday. However, there is still enough moisture present
across the area such that even with weak forcing, isolated storms
cannot completely be ruled out. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are
expected throughout much of the week with seasonal average highs
near the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through
the TAF period. Clouds should scatter out this afternoon and
evening, becoming mostly clear overnight. There is a potential
for patchy fog around sunrise, particularly at PVW and LBB,
due to this morning`s rainfall and low temperatures nearing the
dewpoint early tomorrow morning. However, confidence is too low to
include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...DF