859
FXUS64 KLUB 051931
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Little overall synoptic scale flow is noted from yesterday and
this will largely persist through tomorrow with an H2 jet dipping
out of the Pacific Northwest into the central plains thence back
into the Canadian Maritimes. Two maxima are indicated....once
roughly along the axis of the Great Lakes and another from
Yellowstone NP toward Vancouver Island. Only the northwestern
feature will have any consequence for our weather.

Embedded disturbances in the H5 flow, associated with the jetlet
coming our of the Pac NW, will transition ESE along the jet axis and
make their way into the central plains on Saturday.

Guidance has struggled (with great difficulty) with the evolution of
this morning/afternoon`s convective complex making its way out of
our eastern zones.  Cool and moist outflow winds have reinforced low
level capping across the eastern 4/5ths of the CWFA and as such,
have slashed POPs to a great extent where we could (in coordination
with surrounding offices).  While we think that the CWA should
remain mostly rain/free this evening, there is the possibility of a
MCS moving out of ERN NM toward Saturday morning which may clip our
western zones and POPS were maintained in that region for that
potential eventuality.  How tomorrow pans out will largely depend on
how any overnight system evolves (if it does).  By in large,
confidence in storm chances on Saturday afternoon and evening have
decreased somewhat though we`ll have to see what the atmosphere
delivers overnight to really get a better handle on it for sure.

One other thing to mention....while not included in the official
forecast, we could see some patchy fog in the Rolling Plains thanks
to the combination of today`s rain, cooler temperatures, moist
ground and upslope light winds.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The extended forecast generally remains unchanged from the previous.
An upper trough and surface cold front is expected to track through
the area from north to south Sunday night into Monday. This will
bring the highest precipitation chances of the week, with a few
thunderstorms potentially becoming marginally severe capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and periods of heavy rainfall.
While storm chances diminish for the remainder of the week, the
overall pattern with a moist surface ESE flow (aided by Hurricane
Beryl) and weak generally NNW flow aloft means they cannot be
completely ruled out, particularly over the far SW Texas Panhandle.
Near triple-digit highs Sunday will quickly cool into the 80s by
Monday and remain in the 80s and low 90s through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A complex setup exist across West Texas with an exiting area of
thunderstorms moving east of our terminals. Easterly surface flow
continues to advect cool/moist air near the surface and this is
resulting in much uncertainty in ceilings potentially near the
VFR/MVFR thresholds. Model guidance, by in large, does not have a
good handle on the evolution of the clouds this afternoon and the
forecast has trended closer toward observational trends and an
assumption that thunderstorm chances are expected to be much lower
than previously forecast. For now, will keep the forecast above
IFR criteria though things could degrade overnight. We may see a
return of thunder on Saturday afternoon beyond the end of this TAF
cycle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...26