782
FXUS64 KLUB 161650
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1150 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Amarillo`s 88D at 2 AM showed an outflow boundary drifting south
along I40 accompanied by decaying convection. This boundary should
stall across our northern counties around daybreak as northerly
winds gradually wane, although subtle convergence with hot temps
again today could open the door to a few high-based afternoon
storms. One factor against storms today concerns a field of
convective cloud debris spreading south around a departing upper
high to our west. Despite minimal change in thicknesses today, these
high clouds may curb highs from reaching convective temps yet still
be toasty enough to justify keeping the Heat Advisory across our far
northeast counties. Opted to broadbrush 20% PoPs across our northern
areas this afternoon for this weakly forced setup.

Storm chances look a bit better this evening in our northwest
counties as upslope convection in northeast NM drifts southeast,
although this will likely lose its vigor as it approaches a
lingering W-E ridge axis aloft. One concern overnight is that models
are likely underestimating the southern extent of outflow along with
renewed and spotty storm development after midnight, so NBM`s low
PoPs after midnight were expanded to include all but our far
southern row of counties. Subsequently, low temps tonight may need
to be revised warmer if cloud debris overnight looks more robust,
although for now we`ve kept with the blend`s cooler lows owing to a
larger push of outflow on northerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The front will be making its way through the FA tomorrow morning and
will help to cool high temps. The front will remain in the region
through at least late Thursday further cooling highs into the mid
80s/low 90s area wide. The lingering front will also help to
increase thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon into late Thursday.
Surface flow will return to a more southerly direction by Friday,
but this should only increase temps slightly as the upper high will
remain to our west over the Four Corners. The location of the upper
high will place the FA under north-northwesterly upper flow. While
northwesterly upper flow historically provides greater chances for
evening and overnight thunderstorms in the form of a MCS, upper flow
could have enough of a westerly component to allow terrain induced
convection to push southeastward into the FA. If storms fail to move
into the FA with this pattern, precip chances will increase by the
weekend with the prospects of another cold front moving into the
region late Saturday into Sunday morning. The front will be pushed
southward by a shortwave trough rotating around the main upper low
across eastern Canada. The combination of precip and cold front will
help push temps below 90 area wide with some areas possible seeing
highs pushing near 80. The upper high is progged to push further
west beyond the forecast period with upper flow becoming more
northwesterly through late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. West to
southwest winds will begin to shift more southerly before shifting
out of the north late tonight into early tomorrow morning with a
passing front. Scattered RA may develop along the boundary
overnight, mainly at KCDS. Other terminals like KLBB/KPVW could
see some spotty lingering showers after midnight but the
likelihoodof this is very slim, therefore not warranting a TAF
mention.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...12