943
FXUS64 KLUB 162334
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The upper level ridge and associated high pressure system over
southwestern CONUS will continue to expand eastward this afternoon
with the FA positioned along the eastern flank of the ridge. A very
weak perturbation passing through the eastern side of the ridge will
allow for a slight chance for thunderstorm development late this
afternoon and early evening across the far southern Texas Panhandle.
By tomorrow, the ridge will begin to slightly retreat westward as an
upper level trough tracks through the Great Lakes region therefore
allowing northwest flow aloft to prevail across the FA.

A slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms remain possible
late this afternoon into the overnight hours, mainly across the far
southern Texas Panhandle. Initial convection will develop in eastern
New Mexico along the higher terrain before making a slow south to
southeastward progression into the FA. Uncertainty remains on if
thunderstorms will make their way into our northern zones late
tonight with latest guidance backing off as the shortwave trough
decays. However, we could see some scattered showers develop along a
weak frontal boundary pushing southward from the northern Texas
Panhandle overnight.

The beginning of a slight reprieve in hot temperatures is expected
tomorrow as early morning FROPA shifts winds out of the northeast.
This passage will also work in conjuction with northwest flow aloft
to decrease thickness values. All of this together will lead to a
pleasant day across the region with high temperatures in the low to
mid 90s. Moisture is expected to remain locked over the region; in
addition, a perturbation in the flow aloft may allow for thunderstorm
development once again along the higher terrain in eastern New
Mexico.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

By OZ Thursday, the synoptic-scale setup over the CONUS should
feature an upper-level ridge over the West and a positively tilted
trough extending from the Great Lakes Region toward Quebec. Later
this week, the ridge should be pushed westward as the trough deepens
over the northern Great Plains, putting the forecast area under NW
to NNW flow aloft for nearly the whole long term period. As a
result, PoPs increase beginning Wednesday evening. PoPs stay
mentionable but decrease Friday afternoon, followed by an increase
due to the arrival of a shortwave Saturday. Because of the
consistent pattern, each day`s weather will be affected by the
previous day`s conditions. Cloud cover should limit daily high
temperatures to below average, providing a break from the heat.
Likewise, clouds should cause lows to trend warmer until Saturday
before cooling down for the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR is expected to prevail at all sites through the next 24 hours.
An area of scattered TS near AMA this evening will send an outflow
boundary southward which will bring a northerly wind shift to all
terminals tonight. While confidence in the wind shift is high,
very low confidence exists regarding whether any additional TS
develop along this boundary as it shifts southward. This potential
for additional convection overnight looks best at CDS and will
include VCTS there, with lower probability for convection at
LBB/PVW. Will omit TS mention at LBB/PVW for now and amend as
necessary. Winds will then become predominantly easterly by
Wednesday morning, with additional convection possible at all
sites on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...30