Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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793 FXUS64 KLUB 040904 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High temperatures today will be fairly similar to what was observed yesterday as our overall pattern won`t change much ahead of the approaching cold front. As of 2 am, this front was located from northeastern Colorado into southern Nebraska and is expected to enter the far southwestern Texas Panhandle around noon. Based on the timing of the front most of the area should still warm into the upper 90s to lower 100s, while the far southwestern Texas Panhandle may only warm into the lower to mid 90s. Dewpoints should keep heat indices just below the 105 degree value across the Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle hence no Heat Advisory will be issued for today. Convective development is expected along the front between 3 pm and 4 pm as the capping inversion erodes. Surface based CAPE values of around 1500 J/kg will be in place ahead of the front but shear will be meager with only around 15-20 kts of effective bulk shear. This would suggest multi-cell clusters as the primary storm mode. Cloud bases around 8,000 ft with a well mixed boundary layer below it, indicates the potential for a few stronger wind gusts up to 60 mph. The slower storm motions could also lead to heavy rainfall although storms should slowly move to the southeast along the leading edge of the front limiting the overall flooding threat. Thunderstorm activity should come to an end around midnight but skies will remain mostly cloudy through the night. Behind the front temperatures will be cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 60s on the Caprock with lower 70s across the Rolling Plains. /WI && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 The cold front will be south of our area by Friday morning with easterly upslope surface flow developing in its wake. This will lead to stratus formation Friday morning which will slowly dissipate through the late morning. The cloudy start to the day combined with the cooler airmass behind the cold front means Friday will be quite wonderful temperature wise with high temperatures topping out in the 80s. Precipitation chances on Friday are still uncertain as it appears we should remain cloudy much of the day but with modestly steep lapse rates in the mid- levels 500-1000 J/kg may still be realized across the region especially if the low clouds dissipate in the morning hours. Any leftover boundaries or convergence along the edge of the Caprock may lead to shower/thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. The more likely scenario for rain in our area though would be Friday evening and overnight as convection develops in eastern New Mexico as a shortwave moves overhead and eventually spreading into West Texas. An upper-level ridge will expand across the western CONUS this weekend with broad troughing remaining in place across the central CONUS. This will leave our forecast area within northwest flow aloft and hence give us several additional chances for showers and thunderstorms especially during the evening and overnight hours across the South Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures will slowly rebound on Saturday into the upper 80s to lower 90s with a more substantial boost on Sunday thanks to a return of southwesterly surface winds with highs in the 90s. Another cold front will move through the region on Monday bringing slightly cooler temperatures and another round of showers and thunderstorms to most of our forecast area. Northwest flow aloft will remain in place through the middle of next week keeping evening and overnight precipitation chances possible along with temperatures right around average for early July. Our upper-level pattern will become more northerly by the end of next week as the ridge begins to expand towards West Texas which should lead to drier and warmer conditions. /WI && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the majority of this TAF period. Winds will slowly veer to the southwest this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will lead to thunderstorm development this afternoon as well as switch winds around to the north and then eventually east. Starting around 20z convective development is possible at all three TAF sites. These thunderstorms will slowly slide south and east through the evening so all TAF sites should become dry by late tonight. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty and erratic winds, as well as brief drops in visibility due to heavy rain. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...58