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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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344 FXUS66 KLOX 132144 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 244 PM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...13/128 PM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish early this evening, with only a slight chance Sunday afternoon across northeast Los Angeles County. A cooling trend will continue across the area through at least Tuesday before a warming trend develops for the end of next week. Extreme heat is possible across the interior by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...13/159 PM. A very active day today with numerous thunderstorms, but so far with very little rain. This is particularly concerning for the interior areas where the fuels are rapidly drying and lightning strikes could easily spark a fire. Thunderstorms have been mostly focused over the western portion of the forecast area so far today, including Santa Barbara and western Ventura County. And as hi res models predicted yesterday we`re starting to get increasing development across the Antelope Valley. Expecting convective activity to continue area-wide through early evening before settling down overnight as the air mass stabilizes. Based on current satellite and radar trends southern LA County and eastern Ventura County are much less likely to get convective activity today, but leaving at least a slight chance in there to be on the safe side. So far most of the storms have dropped very little rain, but as updraft speeds increase through the afternoon and tap into more moisture aloft there could be some brief heavy showers as well as hail and gusty winds. Can`t rule out isolated flooding, especially in the Antelope Valley. Sunday is expected to me a much less active day overall as the flow aloft veers to the south and precipitable waters decrease. However, hi res models still picking up on enough instability and moisture to warrant a slight chance of showers/storms across the eastern Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills and mountains. Otherwise, a fairly quiet day expected weather-wise with continued cooler temperatures inland. No significant weather issues expected early next week as the high pressure that`s been over the west weakens and shifts far enough east to help bring temperatures down closer to normal levels. In fact, by Monday most areas except the Antelope Valley will be 2-4 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...13/211 PM. Ensemble solutions continue to favor a warming trend starting Wednesday and going through next weekend, especially for interior areas again. By next Saturday chances are increasing that another round of excessive heat warnings will be needed across the Antelope Valley with highs again approaching 110. Warming is expected across the mountains and valleys as well but less confident on how hot it will get there. Current forecast gradients do show some decrease later next week and the GFS indicate significant warming at 950mb as well. Chances for Paso Robles reaching 110 are still under 20% and chances for Woodland Hills reaching 105 around in the 20-30% range. In any case, another fairly long warming spell is expected the latter half of next week with the focus again across the interior. && .AVIATION...13/1806Z. At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1800 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 5800 feet with a temperature of 25 deg C. There is a low, but non-zero chance of isolated thunderstorms at all sites 18Z Sat-06Z Sun. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF. For these sites, there is a 20% chance for thunderstorms 18Z Sat-06Z Sun. Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs. Cig hgts may be off by +/- 300 ft. Flight cat transitions may be off by +/- 2 hours. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Flight cat transitions may be off by +/- 2 hours. No significant easterly wind component is expected. && .MARINE...13/243 PM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are not expected through the weekend. There is a 30% chance of SCA winds across the Outer Waters starting Monday afternoon, with chances increasing to 40% Wednesday into Thursday. In addition, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA winds across the far western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel during each afternoon through overnight hours beginning Monday through the week. A long period south swell is expected to arrive Tuesday and may lead to elevated surf conditions and high rip current potential through Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible (about a 20% chance) through early this evening. Any thunderstorm that forms will be capable of producing locally gale force winds, rough seas, and dangerous lightning. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 38-343>345-353-376>379-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 342>345-348-351>353-356-357-376>383. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/MW/MW/Rorke AVIATION...jld MARINE...Smith SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox