245
FXUS66 KLOX 140550
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1050 PM PDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...13/128 PM.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish early
this evening, with only a slight chance Sunday afternoon across
northeast Los Angeles County. A cooling trend will continue across
the area through at least Tuesday before a warming trend develops
for the end of next week. Extreme heat is possible across the
interior by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...13/855 PM.

***UPDATE***

Fairly convective day today but mostly over SLO and SBA counties
where an axis of moisture and instability converged. The mositure
was fairly high based and produced mostly virga. There was some
dry lightning and two wildfires were started by it in eastern SLO
county. The convection has greatly diminished and now there are
just some remant showers which will fade soon.

Max temps fell 3 to 6 degrees everywhere today due to the cloud
cover except for the LA/VTA csts/vlys which warmed 4 to 8 degrees
in the abscense of ydy`s humongous eddy driven marine layer. Max
temps across the interior were down 4 to 8 degrees today and with
a few degrees of cooling on tap tomorrow the Excessive Heat
Warnings will be allowed to expire.

The marine layer stratus was not disrupted too much and is slowly
moving back into the coastal sections.

Updated the forecast to remove TSTMs, adjust pops and tweek max
temps tomorrow.

***From Previous Discussion***

Sunday is expected to me a much less active day overall as the
flow aloft veers to the south and precipitable waters decrease.
However, hi res models still picking up on enough instability and
moisture to warrant a slight chance of showers/storms across the
eastern Antelope Valley and adjacent foothills and mountains.
Otherwise, a fairly quiet day expected weather-wise with continued
cooler temperatures inland.

No significant weather issues expected early next week as the high
pressure that`s been over the west weakens and shifts far enough
east to help bring temperatures down closer to normal levels. In
fact, by Monday most areas except the Antelope Valley will be 2-4
degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...13/211 PM.

Ensemble solutions continue to favor a warming trend starting
Wednesday and going through next weekend, especially for interior
areas again. By next Saturday chances are increasing that another
round of excessive heat warnings will be needed across the
Antelope Valley with highs again approaching 110. Warming is
expected across the mountains and valleys as well but less
confident on how hot it will get there. Current forecast gradients
do show some decrease later next week and the GFS indicate
significant warming at 950mb as well. Chances for Paso Robles
reaching 110 are still under 20% and chances for Woodland Hills
reaching 105 around in the 20-30% range. In any case, another
fairly long warming spell is expected the latter half of next week
with the focus again across the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0543Z.

At 04Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3800 feet with a temperature of 29 deg C.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in KBUR and KVNY. There is a 20% chance of
LIFR conds 12Z-15Z.

Low confidence in coastal TAFs with flight cat changes off by a
possible +/- 3 hours. There is 30% chance of LIFR conditions,
with the best chances being at KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, KOXR, and KCMA.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of 2SM
OVC004 conds through 15Z. There is a 25 percent chc that VFR conds
will arrive at 19Z and a 15 percent chc of 17Z. No significant
east wind component is expected.

KBUR... Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chance
of 1SM OVC003 conds 12Z-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...13/826 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are not expected tonight
through Sunday night. There is a 30% chance of SCA winds across
the Outer Waters beginning Monday afternoon, with chances
increasing to 40% Wednesday into Thursday. In addition, there is a
20-30% chance of SCA winds across the far western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel during each afternoon through overnight
hours beginning Monday through the week. A long period south swell
is expected to arrive Tuesday and may lead to elevated surf
conditions and high rip current potential through the week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis/Rorke
MARINE...Lewis/Smith
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox