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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
Issued by NWS Chicago, IL
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803 FXUS63 KLOT 122337 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - While majority of the weekend should be rain free, there could be a period or two of showers/storms this weekend - Some severe potential exists with any convection this weekend into early next week, but confidence in timing/details is low and will hinge on mesoscale details - Increasingly hot and humid conditions expected through Monday, heat indices over 100 degrees probable Sunday and Monday afternoons - Shower/storm chances increase again Monday night and Tuesday associated with cold front that will bring cooler/less humid weather for middle-end of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Through Saturday Night: With an upper-level trough moving off to the east, quiet weather is expected through the remainder of the day today. Dry air in the mid- levels will work to limit any chance of showers or storms this evening. Light northeasterly/easterly winds will turn southeasterly late this evening. Temperatures in the mid-80s this afternoon will cool into the mid-60s overnight tonight. Warmer and more humid conditions are expected on Saturday with high temperatures around 90 degrees and dew points climbing into the mid 70s. Steeper mid-level lapse rates (nearing 7 C/km) moving into the area tomorrow morning, juxtaposed above an increasingly moist boundary layer will result 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE during the afternoon. The arrival time of these lapse rates could kick off some elevated convection in the morning hours tomorrow given any kind of lifting mechanism. Although bulk shear is not expected to be the greatest (20-25 kts), the large CAPE values could lead to strong to severe storms. Although this scenario does seem like a possibility, most model guidance keeps things dry through the morning before convection initiates in the afternoon and early evening due to persistent WAA to overcome the weak capping that will be in place with a warm nose around 900-850 mb. Have opted to go with slight chance (15-25%) PoPs in the morning with chance (30-40%) PoPs in the afternoon to account for these scenarios. A shortwave over the Northern Plains along with steep EML lapse rates is expected to kick off convection in Minnesota tomorrow morning. This will congeal into a MCS, which is expected to advance southeast towards the CWA tomorrow afternoon/evening. It will most likely follow a track along the instability gradient and along the edge of the EML, which looks to set up just northeast of the area. However, a right hand turn into the area or the instability gradient setting up across the northeastern portion of the area looks like a distinct possibility, which would allow the storms to propagate through the area. However, uncertainty still remains high on how this system will move and behave. Wherever it does pass, looks likely to see strong to possibly severe storms given the large MLCAPE values and marginal shear (20-25 kts). Model guidance is also all over the place on the timing of this system with some models moving it through the area as early as 00Z and others as later as 06Z. This could play a role in how strong the storms are when they get with the later scenario likely having weaker storms due to the lack of diurnal heating. Have carried chance (30-40%) PoPs through the overnight hours. Either WAA induced showers and storms or a strengthening of ongoing convection also look possible on the nose of a 35-40 kt LLJ overnight Saturday night. Carothers Sunday through Friday: Tricky forecast Sunday through Monday as upper ridge over the western U.S. attempts to build eastward toward the Mississippi Valley, allowing hot and humid air mass to overspread the area. The tricky part of the forecast is potential for occasional MCS activity potentially disrupting the heat and humidity and posing risk of locally heavy rainfall and potentially severe weather. Guidance continues to suggest that a series of low amplitude shortwave troughs will ride the west-northwesterly flow from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. Unfortunately, the low amplitude nature of these waves results in particularly low predictability in guidance, especially more than a day in advance. In addition, it is likely that these subtle waves will become significantly augmented convectively, another process that is not generally well handled in guidance, especially beyond 24 hours. Assuming no disruptive MCS or MCS debris, then Sunday should be breezy, hot, and humid with highs in the 90s and heat indices likely near or above 100 degrees. There is some signal in guidance suggesting a slightly better chance of convection Sunday night, followed by another potential break during the day Monday. Again, timing is highly subject to change given the predictability challenges in these regimes. Once again Monday, if lingering cloudiness or convection from prior night`s MCS isn`t an issue, then high temps should once again soar well into the 90s with afternoon heat indices over 100 degrees. Heat headlines could be needed for Sunday and/or Monday, but until confidence increases in convection not interrupting the heat, will not be issuing any headlines. A more formidable and amplified synoptic trough is progged to dig southeast into the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This should help drive a cold front southeastward across the area with additional shower and thunderstorm chances Monday night into Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft associated with the amplifying trough should provide for more favorable shear profile for severe weather potential Monday night and Tuesday, but there are still a lot of mesoscale details yet to be worked out. Cooler, less humid, and drier conditions are expected during the middle and later part of next week as Canadian high pressure settles into the region. - Izzi && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Only forecast concern is the chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Light easterly winds are expected to become light southeasterly tonight and likely light and variable for many locations. Winds will become southerly Saturday morning with speeds increasing to 10kts. A lake breeze is expected Saturday afternoon, but is also expected to remain near the lake, and possibly not affect even GYY. Convective trends are uncertain for Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, though chances for thunderstorms will slowly be increasing during this time period. There are a few different possible scenarios, none of which have any higher confidence than the other. While isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as mid Saturday afternoon, the most pessimistic scenario is thunderstorms develop across southern WI Saturday evening and move into northeast IL and continue to redevelop through early Sunday morning. Confidence remains too low for thunder mention with this forecast. However, some thunder mention will likely be needed with later forecasts. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago