798
FXUS63 KLMK 101722
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
122 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Breezy conditions expected today, with sustained winds of 10-20
    mph and gusts of 20-30 mph.

*   Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures expected for Friday
    through the weekend. Worsening drought conditions are possible.

*   Triple-digit heat index values could return Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Clouds and light drizzle are slowly pushing eastward this morning
via satellite and observational data. Skies have already cleared out
in locations west of I-65, and we should see gradual clearing toward
the I-75 corridor through the day. Breezy westerly winds will stick
around through most of the day. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This morning, the center of the sfc low associated with the remnants
of Beryl is located over central Indiana. Latest SPC mesoanalysis
and WPC surface analysis has 1004 mb central pressure near
Indianapolis, with a pressure trough representing the effective cold
frontal boundary extending south along the I-65 corridor across
southern IN and central KY as of 07Z. Light to moderate rain showers
are exiting the KY Bluegrass region to the east at this hour, with
additional sprinkles/light rain showers oriented along a narrow
corridor immediately behind the cold front farther to the west.
Isolated to scattered sprinkles/light rain showers will continue,
mainly along and north of the Western KY/Bluegrass Parkways, through
mid-morning, though precipitation totals should be very light.

Winds will be unusually strong for mid July today across the region
as the sfc pressure gradient remains tight on the back side of the
sfc low. Even at this hour, wind gusts of 20-25 mph are being
observed according to latest mesonet/ASOS obs. Winds should peak
during the mid-morning through the early afternoon hours today.
Sustained westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph
are expected, with isolated gusts to 35 mph possible. As the sfc low
pulls farther away from the area this evening, winds will steadily
ease, with light and variable winds returning tonight.

While deeper moisture will move east of the region this morning, a
shallow saturated layer between 925-850 mb will produce a stratus
deck which is expected to persist into the late morning and early
afternoon hours. These low clouds will eventually lift and scatter
out this afternoon, generally clearing from SW to NE. Clouds should
help to suppress temperatures initially, though temps should warm
once sunshine returns. As a result, high temperatures today will
range from the upper 70s in the NE CWA to the mid 80s in the SW CWA.

Late this afternoon and into the evening hours, low-level
convergence and lingering moisture may help to spark a few showers
and thunderstorms across the Wabash Valley and points NW, with any
showers/storms drifting toward our area during the evening hours.
Would expect coverage to be very isolated given warming mid-level
temps limiting lapse rates; however, its worth mentioning that one
or two showers or storms can`t be ruled out this evening.

Tonight, light winds and mostly clear skies are expected, helping
temperatures to cool efficiently after sunset. Lows should fall into
the 60s in most locations for Thursday morning, which should be the
coolest temperatures we experience in the foreseeable future. Fog
will also be possible tomorrow morning, especially in areas which
have received rainfall over the past 24 hours. The extent and
duration of fog is still uncertain, and will depend on how quickly
we clear out today.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Lingering upper trofiness will persist Thursday as the post-tropical
low continues to fill NE of Georgian Bay. A weak disturbance will
dig into the mid-Mississippi Valley but lift out sharply enough that
only far western Kentucky and perhaps the southwestern quadrant of
Indiana will get a deep Gulf moisture tap. Slight chance POPs on
Thursday afternoon will be limited mainly to the Hoosier National
Forest and areas north and west.  Temps near normal for this time of
year, perhaps touching 90 in south-central Kentucky.

Pattern becomes more zonal Friday into the weekend, with heights
building as the faster westerlies are pushed solidly to our north.
Very slight chance for convection to brush our southern Indiana
counties Friday afternoon, but otherwise it looks like a dry
weekend. Temps will be on a gradual warming trend, with more areas
punching into the 90s each day and a slight increase in humidity.

Heat and humidity will be the headliners early next week, as the
stronger upper ridging finally builds in from the Plains. Temps well
into the 90s and dewpoints solidly above 70 will result in triple-
digit heat indices Monday and/or Tuesday for at least some portion
of the area. However, confidence is limited as the more NW component
of the flow aloft could guide MCS activity into at least the Upper
Ohio Valley either day. Will highlight the potential for heat in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook for now, but will not play it up too much
yet.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

MVFR to low-end VFR stratus is slowly lifting and scouring out of
the region this afternoon. Some strato-cu has developed in its wake
but should dissipate this evening. Winds will stay gusty through the
afternoon but turn light/variable after sunset with the nocturnal
inversion building in.

Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds are expected overnight.
Could see some patchy fog develop at some TAF sites toward dawn but
will quickly burn off with the rising sun. Light winds will persist
into tomorrow as broad surface high pressure settles nearby.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DM
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...DM