905
FXUS63 KLMK 191904
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Gradual warm up this weekend with increasing mugginess by early
    next week.

*   Shower and storm chances increase across southern KY this
    weekend, then everywhere else by next week.

*   Locally heavy rainfall possible with any of these showers and
    storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Broad area of sfc high pressure over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great
Lakes will be the dominant weather feature tonight into tomorrow
with predominantly dry weather for most of our CWA. A positive
tilted trough aloft stretching from the Hudson Bay towards Louisiana
along with an Upper Ridge Axis centered over Bermuda in the Atlantic
will allow for Gulf of Mexico moisture to increase over the region
for the weekend. A weak impulse coming out of the Deep South will
move northeast through the TN Valley tonight into tomorrow while sfc
reflection will move along the same path along a stalled sfc
boundary helping to increase clouds and shower/storm chances during
the day tomorrow.

High clouds will increase overnight from the south as winds become
light and variable. Dew point values will be a little higher than
last night along with our temperatures tonight. Lows in the low/mid
60s are expected with a few upper 50s across southern IN. Depending
on cloud cover, there could be some very isolated fog development,
mostly along the KY/TN borders where we`ve seen the most rain from
the last couple of days.

Thanks to the aforementioned sfc high over the region, fair dry
weather is expected but as the weak sfc low works along the stalled
boundary to our south, an inverted sfc trough will nose northward
into south-central KY. This will help to increase shower/storm
chances in the afternoon for locations along to south of the
Parkways. I anticipate most of the activity to be limited and
isolated to scattered in nature given the general lack of lift.
Skies will be partly to mostly sunny and afternoon highs in the mid
to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

An active weather pattern is on tap late weekend into the next week
with chances for precipitation each day.  A general stagnant upper
level trough of low pressure will hang across the area.  With
limited jet energy Sunday and Monday and few forecast vort maximums,
not expecting much in the way of strong organized thunderstorms.
However, model forecast soundings do have decent depictions of
instability that increases with locations closer to the KY/TN
border.  Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere could lead to heavy
rain producers and perhaps some areas of small hail and locally
gusty winds in thunderstorms.

Tuesday and beyond, more moisture with PWs at 2+ inches advect
across areas of stagnant vort maximums southeast of a line from
Bowling Green to Campbellsville to Lexington.  In these areas there
is increasing confidence for thunderstorm training and higher
chances for efficient heavy rain producing storms.  Model forecast
soundings show meager instability and lack of shearing winds,
however the pattern is conducive for efficient rain producers.
Flooding is possible depending on rain rates and the location of
storm tracks. Current forecast has upwards of 1.5-2 inches of rain
accumulations from repeated rounds of rain through the end of next
week, although higher amounts of rain are almost entirely possible
in heavier rain producer thundestorms.

Outside of Sunday`s high temperatures being close to normal in the
mid to upper 80s, max temperatures will gradually lessen to the low
to mid 80s toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

High pressure remains in control of our weather during the forecast
period providing VFR flight categories. While a system across the
Deep South will work along a stalled boundary across the TN Valley
this afternoon and overnight, we`ll only see high clouds work in
associated with this system. Winds will remain generally around 5kts
this afternoon before becoming more variable overnight and
continuing into tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...BTN