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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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664 FXUS63 KLMK 131759 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 159 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures expected for for the weekend. * Triple-digit heat index values could return Sunday afternoon and are likely early next week. * Shower and storm chances look to increase by the middle of next week as a frontal boundary sinks into the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1142 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour, and expect it to stay that way for most through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Will still carry some isolated shower/storm chances into the PM hours as a weakened remnant MCV meanders through the area. Don`t really see the circulation on satellite imagery anymore, but there is an area of weak convection across southern IL and western KY that likely is associated. Given that we can see this upstream, and that moderate instability is forecast for this afternoon, think the slight chance is justified. Outside of the weakened MCV, there doesn`t appear to be another trigger. No changes planned to this forecast as temperatures will climb into the low 90s under partly sunny skies. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 RAP upper level analysis and water vapor imagery this morning showed a disturbance over IL with plenty of moisture streaming into the Ohio Valley. Light and variable winds were present under clear skies with some fog developing across the area. Temperatures ranged from the low to mid 70s. Weak wind flow through the atmospheric column today with not much of a jet stream, but the small disturbance ripple aloft moving across the Ohio River Valley could provide just enough lift to create some showers and thunderstorms this morning into the early afternoon, especially west of I-65 (low confidence in development). Model soundings have a decent CAPE instability profile (2000+J/KG at times) across the area, but effective inflow and 0-6 KM shear numbers are fairly week. Any storms that develop (if they develop) could result in brief heavy downpours of rain with the moisture availability, along with small hail and gusty winds in any storm that develops. Weak shortwave trough base passes through the area by the early afternoon with steady (albeit weak) mid level height rises through the day as high pressure becomes the dominate weather feature with slightly warmer highs than Friday in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees. Light winds heading into Saturday night could result in some patchy fog in areas, especially early to mid night. Winds are expected to increase slightly that may mix out fog into the later night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The Ohio Valley will remain under the influence of a broad upper- level ridge stretching from the Four Corners/Intermountain West eastward towards the southeast US and Bahamas Sunday into the start of the week. Weak northwest to quasi-zonal flow over the region and weak southwesterly flow at the sfc will result in continued hot and humid weather. Daily highs for Sunday though Tuesday will range from the mid/upper 90s and with dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s heat index values will range between 100-105F. There will be little relief each night from the heat as lows dropping into the low 70s and urban locations in the mid 70s. Along with the heat, the weather is mainly dry. While we can`t rule out an isolated shower/storm Sunday due to a weak system passing by to our north clipping parts of far southeast IN and the Bluegrass, the next chance of showers/storms will be Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front working in from the Great Lakes. Best chance for showers/storms will be Wednesday as the sfc boundary will work across the region. Moisture pooling ahead of the front with result in PWAT values near 2.00" supporting storms that could produce heavy rainfall. As for the severe threat, while we will have instability, shear remains low for any organized updrafts and convection. Gusty winds can`t be ruled out but for now confidence is low. Front will push south by Thursday but could potentially get hung up across the KY/TN borders so could still see a few lingers showers/storms across the south. Temperatures will be cooler for the end of the week into the mid/low 80s before rebounding to the mid/upper 80s to start the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Looking for mostly VFR conditions to prevail through this forecast cycle, although a couple of brief visibility reductions are possible from AM fog, and a small chance at a shower or storm. Look for light and generally W winds through the afternoon, before going light out of the S or calm tonight. Seeing a few-sct cumulus around 4-6 k feet, along with some occasional upper sky cover. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm, but probability of any impacting a terminal is too low to include mention. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...BJS SHORT TERM...MCK LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BJS