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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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306 FXUS63 KLMK 141456 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1056 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Triple-digit heat index values could return this afternoon through Tuesday. * Chance of showers and storms along and north of I-64 later this afternoon/evening with gusty winds, heavy rain. * Shower and storm chances look to increase by the middle of this week as a frontal boundary sinks into the area. * Cooler temps in the 80s for Thursday into Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The current forecast is on track, and only minor tweaks were made in the late-morning update. Watching a MCS over northern Indiana this morning, which will be taking a dive to the southeast in the coming hours. It`s possible the southern periphery of this complex could come close to our far northeastern forecast area later today, but the latest trends are suggesting this complex may stay just to our northeast along the instability gradient. Because of this, have trimmed PoPs slightly to shift them more northeast, but have also kept PoPs less than 30%. Forecast temps are also on track, with no changes made. We`ll see temps climb into the 90s, with heat indices around 100F. Any afternoon convection and cloud debris could result in localized temperature drops, but on a broad scale the SPS still looks good. Updated forecast package will be sent. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The main focus for today will be the increased heat and humidity in the afternoon across our CWA. Highs will range from the low/mid 90s with dew points in the low 70s/upper 60s. This will yield max heat index values at or just above 100 degrees but below the heat advisory category of 105. Will continue the Special Weather Statement for the hot and humid conditions. There is a potential to bust forecast temperatures due to cloud cover associated with convective debris as well as any development of showers/storms in the late afternoon & evening. A series of MCS working across northern IN/southern MI and a second one across WI/MN will push southeast along the peripheral of the upper ridge associated with a weak shortwave embedded in the weak northwest flow. While confidence remains relatively low, given the over achieving convection the last couple of days and the above mentioned lift from outflow boundaries/embedded shortwave, decided to carry a 20-30% PoP along and north of I-64 later this afternoon into the evening. While any activity will provide relief from the heat, they could also have gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning. This seems to be in line with the SPC Day 1 Convective outlook which brings the marginal risk (1 out of 5) to just outside of our CWA across southeast IN/southern OH. Forecast for this evening will be dependent on when and where convection develops in the afternoon. Some of the hi-res models like the NAM 3km want to bring a line of storms into northern KY/southern IN this evening. While this appear to be an outlier based on other CAMs, it should be monitored none the less. Otherwise, skies should clear with warm and muggy conditions with lows near 70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Monday - Tuesday High pressure will dominate the local weather patttern as temperatures will be well above normal for Monday and Tuesday. Highs each day will be in the mid to upper 90s (between 5 and 10 degrees above normal) with head indices between 100 and 105. While below thresholds for heat headlines, sensitive groups and those working outdoors may experience heat related symptoms. Ensuring rest breaks and limiting exposure outside during the peak afternoon heating hours will help limit heat illness risk. Dry weather is expected Monday, but Tuesday afternoon into the evening an approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area. Storms will start isolated on Tuesday afternoon and increasing in coverage into the evening and overnight along the passing front. Wednesday - Sunday An upper low well north of the Great Lakes and associated surface cold front across the Ohio Valley will bring enough forcing and moisture convergence to develop showers and storms for the mid-late week. While the better jet dynamics will remain to the north of the forecast area, a few strong storms could develop with heavy downpours of rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts and hail. While chances for precipitation may linger after the front passes each day through the weekend (especially south toward Lake Cumberland region), a nice temperature drop is expected Thursday and into the weekend. Highs in the low to mid 80s are near to slightly below normal for mid July, while high temperatures creep up to near normal across the state for the weekend in the upper 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 557 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Fair weather with VFR flight categories will be in place through the forecast today. Winds look to increase out of the SW between 5-10kts later this afternoon. A series of MCS, the first working across northern IN with the next one in southern WI. These systems could bring some high clouds and remaining outflow boundaries associated with these systems, especially the one coming out of WI, could spark afternoon/evening showers and storms. Current thinking is the bulk of any activity will be to our north through central IN into central OH but there will be enough instability that scattered to isolated storms later today can`t be ruled out. If that were to occur, SDF has the highest chance for activity but still to low to confidently mention or put into the TAFs. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJP SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...MCK AVIATION...BTN