306
FXUS63 KLMK 141456
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1056 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Triple-digit heat index values could return this afternoon
    through Tuesday.

*   Chance of showers and storms along and north of I-64 later this
    afternoon/evening with gusty winds, heavy rain.

*   Shower and storm chances look to increase by the middle of this
    week as a frontal boundary sinks into the area.

*   Cooler temps in the 80s for Thursday into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The current forecast is on track, and only minor tweaks were made in
the late-morning update. Watching a MCS over northern Indiana this
morning, which will be taking a dive to the southeast in the coming
hours. It`s possible the southern periphery of this complex could
come close to our far northeastern forecast area later today, but
the latest trends are suggesting this complex may stay just to our
northeast along the instability gradient. Because of this, have
trimmed PoPs slightly to shift them more northeast, but have also
kept PoPs less than 30%. Forecast temps are also on track, with no
changes made. We`ll see temps climb into the 90s, with heat indices
around 100F. Any afternoon convection and cloud debris could result
in localized temperature drops, but on a broad scale the SPS still
looks good. Updated forecast package will be sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The main focus for today will be the increased heat and humidity in
the afternoon across our CWA. Highs will range from the low/mid 90s
with dew points in the low 70s/upper 60s. This will yield max heat
index values at or just above 100 degrees but below the heat
advisory category of 105. Will continue the Special Weather
Statement for the hot and humid conditions. There is a potential to
bust forecast temperatures due to cloud cover associated with
convective debris as well as any development of showers/storms in
the late afternoon & evening. A series of MCS working across
northern IN/southern MI and a second one across WI/MN will push
southeast along the peripheral of the upper ridge associated with a
weak shortwave embedded in the weak northwest flow. While confidence
remains relatively low, given the over achieving convection the last
couple of days and the above mentioned lift from outflow
boundaries/embedded shortwave, decided to carry a 20-30% PoP along
and north of I-64 later this afternoon into the evening. While any
activity will provide relief from the heat, they could also have
gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning. This seems to be in line with
the SPC Day 1 Convective outlook which brings the marginal risk (1
out of 5) to just outside of our CWA across southeast IN/southern
OH.

Forecast for this evening will be dependent on when and where
convection develops in the afternoon. Some of the hi-res models like
the NAM 3km want to bring a line of storms into northern KY/southern
IN this evening. While this appear to be an outlier based on other
CAMs, it should be monitored none the less. Otherwise, skies should
clear with warm and muggy conditions with lows near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday - Tuesday

High pressure will dominate the local weather patttern as
temperatures will be well above normal for Monday and Tuesday. Highs
each day will be in the mid to upper 90s (between 5 and 10 degrees
above normal) with head indices between 100 and 105.  While below
thresholds for heat headlines, sensitive groups and those working
outdoors may experience heat related symptoms.  Ensuring rest breaks
and limiting exposure outside during the peak afternoon heating
hours will help limit heat illness risk.

Dry weather is expected Monday, but Tuesday afternoon into the
evening an approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the area.  Storms will start isolated on
Tuesday afternoon and increasing in coverage into the evening and
overnight along the passing front.

Wednesday - Sunday

An upper low well north of the Great Lakes and associated surface
cold front across the Ohio Valley will bring enough forcing and
moisture convergence to develop showers and storms for the mid-late
week. While the better jet dynamics will remain to the north of the
forecast area, a few strong storms could develop with heavy
downpours of rain, frequent lightning, wind gusts and hail.

While chances for precipitation may linger after the front passes
each day through the weekend (especially south toward Lake
Cumberland region), a nice temperature drop is expected Thursday and
into the weekend. Highs in the low to mid 80s are near to slightly
below normal for mid July, while high temperatures creep up to near
normal across the state for the weekend in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Fair weather with VFR flight categories will be in place through the
forecast today. Winds look to increase out of the SW between 5-10kts
later this afternoon. A series of MCS, the first working across
northern IN with the next one in southern WI. These systems could
bring some high clouds and remaining outflow boundaries associated
with these systems, especially the one coming out of WI, could spark
afternoon/evening showers and storms. Current thinking is the bulk
of any activity will be to our north through central IN into central
OH but there will be enough instability that scattered to isolated
storms later today can`t be ruled out. If that were to occur, SDF
has the highest chance for activity but still to low to confidently
mention or put into the TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...BTN