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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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605 FXUS63 KLMK 070534 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 134 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry through early next week. Moisture associated with tropical cyclone Beryl look increasingly more likely to move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys starting as early as Tuesday. Heavy rainfall will be possible at times through the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Mostly clear evening out there, but just a few patches of clouds. Have some higher clouds streaming over southeast KY, but these are fairly thin. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s for most at this hour, and readings should be on their down to the 60s by daybreak Sunday. Ongoing forecast looks good and just made a tweak to match current obs. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Broad surface high pressure will keep conditions relatively calm and quiet through the near term. The afternoon cu-field should steadily dissipate as we approach sunset and give way to clear skies. High pressure centered over MO/AR will steadily drift into the Ohio Valley by dawn tomorrow, allowing winds going light to calm overnight. This should result in a pretty optimal radiational cooling setup and lows by sunrise tomorrow will likely fall into the low/mid 60s for many locations. River valley fog is also likely in the typical fog-prone locations. Conditions tomorrow should be very similar to today, with only slightly warmer temperatures anticipated as low-level thicknesses rise. Highs will likely climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, though with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s that should help to take a slight `edge` off the heat. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Low level moisture will begin to steadily return to the region Monday as flow takes on a more southerly component. With the increased moisture, we should see capping in the low levels erode by the afternoon. Without much in the way of a forcing mechanism in place, any convection that does develop will be isolated/scattered in nature. As early as Tuesday, a moisture plume ahead of what is left of tropical cyclone Beryl will advance into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Beryl`s track will be largely influenced by how troughing evolves over the central U.S., but the latest guidance has us under the influence of its moisture through at least Wednesday (or Thursday, depending on the model). Too early to say how much rain may fall given we`re several days out, but the potential for heavy rainfall certainly exists. There are even some synoptic signals for a potential Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) ahead of the main circulation of Beryl which will need to be watched closely. Beryl and its associated moisture should lift out of the region by Thursday or Friday, though we may still stay unsettled at times going into the early weekend as the aforementioned central U.S. trough is slow to move/lift. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected through most if not all of the current forecast period as high pressure continues to dominate over the region. The one caveat would be brief visibility reductions from patchy fog between now and sunrise. Crossover temp analysis suggests the greatest potential will be at HNB/RGA; have taken out fog mention at BWG, though the forecast remains low confidence and a short-fuse addition may be needed. Otherwise, any lower visibilities should clear by 12-13Z, with high confidence in VFR conditions through the remainder of the current forecast period. Winds will be light and variable through the period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...RJS SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM...DM AVIATION...CSG