Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
587 FXUS65 KLKN 051018 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 318 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure builds over the Great Basin producing a stretch of dry and hot weather. Heat impacts are almost certain as valley temperatures reach or exceed 100F for many locales over the weekend before expanding eastward into eastern Nevada early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night Gradually expanding and strengthening ridge over the western U.S. keeps weather dry under mostly sunny and clear skies while promoting a warming trend across the forecast area thru next week. Daytime high temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s, climbing to the low 90s to low 100s Saturday. This has prompted an excessive heat watch for most of the forecast area with an excessive heat warning in effect for Humboldt County beginning Saturday. Watches and warnings currently remain valid thru the middle of next week. A very dry air mass in place paired with excellent radiation cooling overnight promote 45+ degree diurnal temperature swings, bringing some relief to hot daytime temperatures. Overnight lows reside in the upper 40s to upper 50s tonight and mostly in the 50s Saturday night. With the high pressure center focused over NorCal, northwesterly flow will reside over the forecast area today and tomorrow. Northwesterly surface winds will also be in place with afternoon breezes gusting 20 to 25 mph today. Slightly stronger breezes Saturday with gusts 25 to 30 mph. Light to calm conditions overnight with the local drainage winds dominant. && .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. The dominant weather feature across northern and central Nevada through the long term period will be a strong ridge of high pressure. This feature will bring hot and dry weather under mostly sunny and clear skies. Winds will generally remain light, though afternoon gusts to 20 mph are possible. In addition, even stronger gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s to low 100s across the area though higher elevation sites will see highs in the mid to upper 90s. The high temperatures have brought heat watches and warnings through most of the long term period. && .AVIATION...Look for VFR conditions throughout today and tonight. Intermittent gusts to 20 knots are possible in the afternoon, mainly out of the northwest. Temperatures will continue to remain quite warm over the TAF sites, leading to increasing density altitudes particularly over the weekend and into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather and a warming temperature trend will be present thru next week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Minimum afternoon RH values residing less than 15%, paired with afternoon breezes as a weak upper level disturbance skirts northeast Nevada, will result in elevated fire weather conditions thru at lesast the weekend. Critical fire weather conditions will be present across the northern portions of fire weather zone 470 on Saturday and possibly Sunday. This has prompted a fire weather watch for zone 470, currently valid for Saturday afternoon and evening. The probability of wind gusts reaching or exceeding 30 mph is 50-60% && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Wednesday Humboldt County. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening Eastern Elko County. Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Wednesday morning Northeastern Nye County...Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County. && $$ 92/86/99/92