295
FXUS65 KLKN 171131
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
431 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A large upper ridge will remain over the southwestern
United States through the upcoming weekend. Adequate subtropical
moisture under the ridge will allow for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to be present across portions of the forecast area
into next week. A gradual warming trend is also in store for the
area for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night. Radar this morning is
showing light showers moving northward across far western Humboldt
county. A few lightning strikes have been noted though remote
observation platforms have not picked up much in the way of
precipitation. A large area of high pressure continues to be
stationed near the four-corners region today. A south to southwest
flow will remain over the area. The air mass in the eastern parts
of the forecast area will have precipitable water values around
two-thirds to three-quarters an inch while in central and west-
central Nevada, precipitable water values are forecast to be a
little lower at a half to two-thirds of an inch. A slightly more
stable air mass is expected to move east during the early
afternoon hours, limiting coverage of convective activity later
today in the central and west-central portions of the area. Highs
today will be in the low to upper 90s, with some of the warmer
locales possibly topping 100 degrees. Winds will be light with
occasional gusts to 25 mph, though convective wind gusts to 45 mph
is possible with any storm. Look for clearing conditions later
tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s.

For Thursday and Thursday night, the upper ridge will move west,
with a center of circulation forecast around northern Arizona.
Precipitable water values is forecast to increase across eastern
Nevada at three-quarters to nine-tenths of an inch. Winds will
again be light with gusts to 20 mph, though outflow winds from
thunderstorms could produce gusts of 45 mph. High temperatures
will warm to the mid 90s to low 100s. Light, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected for early Thursday night with clearing
after midnight. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday

An upper-level area of high pressure over the Four Corners of the
Untied States will retrograde westward Friday. There should be
ample atmospheric instability and lift in place for thunderstorm
development Friday afternoon, with minimal rainfall. Thunderstorm
probabilities Friday afternoon will vary from 20 to 30 percent in
Southern Eureka and White Pine Counties to 15 to 30 percent in
Elko County to 10 to 20 percent in Southern Lander County. The
aforementioned anticyclone aloft should be centered over the
Silver State Saturday through next Wednesday. Be that as it may,
there is still a slight chance of thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada
each afternoon Saturday through next Wednesday.

A warming trend is expected Friday and Saturday. By Saturday
afternoon, high temperatures will be around five degrees above
normal for this time of year. Temperatures will remain above
seasonal values Sunday and Monday. There is a moderate risk for
heat-related illnesses each afternoon Saturday through Monday.
Heat Advisories may be required for portions of the Northern and
Central Nevada Saturday through Monday. Although heat events like
this are relatively common, heat-related impacts are possible for
those new to the area if simple precautions are not taken. Plan to
take action to reduce time outdoors, drink plenty of water, and
remain in air-conditioned buildings. This heat could begin to
abate Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected today. Mid level monsoonal
moisture will allow for a 10% to 30% chance for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon at KEKO and KELY with a lesser chance
for KWMC, KBAM, and KTPH. Gusty outflow winds up to 40+ knots,
blowing dust, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be the
primary threats. Storms are expected to weaken by the late evening
hours. Outside of storms, breezy winds from the W-SW at 10-15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The upper level ridge of high pressure center
will maintain a position over the four-corners region through
today. This will allow for a modest south to southwest flow to
continue over the region with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms continuing each afternoon across much of the
forecast area. Storms will start out initially dry and it is
expected to transition to wet and dry storms. Winds will be
mostly light with modest afternoon breezes though convective
outflows to 40+ mph are possible under any thunderstorm activity.
Look for a warming trend to continue as the upper level ridge is
forecast to move west. Day time highs will move up a degree or two
each day, topping out into the mid 90s to low 100s depending on
location.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/87/90/86