Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
103 FXUS65 KLKN 100919 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 219 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 136 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 * Warming trend Friday through Wednesday * Near triple digit heat in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday * Increasing chances of thunderstorm activity Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Thursday) Issued at 136 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Shortwave energy over far Northeastern Nevada in combination with a northwesterly surface pressure gradient across Nevada is producing Northwesterly wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph over mainly the higher terrain of Humboldt and Elko Counties. Winds will weaken the remainder of tonight and through Thursday morning. High pressure centered just to the south of Nevada will gradually build and expand northward up into Nevada over the remainder of this week and into next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal today, with a warming trend Friday on through the weekend. At this time not expecting record warmth in the coming days, though with high temperatures ranging from mid 90s to low 100s this weekend and into next week, there will be a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses especially in the lower elevation valley locations including Winnemucca and Battle Mountain where some of the warmest temperatures are expected. Weak instability develops Sunday afternoon with up to a 5% chance of thunderstorms. At this time no mention of TS in the forecast, with increased afternoon cloud build-ups and continued dry conditions the favored solution both Sunday and Monday afternoons. Thunderstorm chances increase for Tuesday afternoon up to around 15% as increasing instability combines with precipitable water levels that will trend slightly higher. However, model ensembles are still not in very good agreement on potential areas for thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in dry conditions through Saturday. Low confidence in any thunderstorm development Sunday or Monday, though not a zero percent chance. Increased chances of thunderstorms on Tuesday, though confidence on the location or level of any thunderstorm activity remains low. High confidence in temperatures trending warmer Friday on through the weekend, along with high confidence in above normal temperatures persisting Monday through at least Wednesday of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions forecast for all terminals thru Friday under mostly clear skies. Much lighter winds this afternoon compared to yesterday with sustained winds around 10KT or less. Breezes at KENV look to diminish by late morning. AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Winds will be considerably lighter Thursday across the region save for extreme northern portions of zones 469/470 where northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts near 25 mph exist until Thursday evening thanks to lingering dynamics from a trough exiting the Great Basin. High pressure builds into the region for the weekend keeping wind speeds light into early next week. Afternoon RH values above criteria in northern NV fire zones Thursday and Friday will gradually dry out through the weekend as temperatures soar into the 90s and triple digits by Sunday and into early next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...92 FIRE WEATHER...99