965
FXUS65 KLKN 192140
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
240 PM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Robust upper ridge remains anchored over the western
U.S. thru early next week. Adequate subtropical moisture under
the ridge will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to be
present across much of the forecast area each afternoon thru early
next week. A gradual warming trend will also be present with
daytime highs creeping into the mid 90s to mid 100s by tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Robust upper ridge remains anchored across the western U.S. and
Canada with the high pressure center continuing to slowly move
west. The high pressure center will be positioned over southern
Nevada by sunrise Sunday. Meanwhile, a deep closed upper low
continues to reside over the Gulf of Alaska. Showers and
thunderstorms present across the forecast area this afternoon will
weaken and dissipate thru this evening with fair weather under
clearing skies expected for tonight. Overnight low temperatures
will be mostly in the low 50s to low 60s. The exception will be
the greater Wendover area where low to mid 70s are forecast.

Sub tropical moisture situated under the ridge will produce
another round of afternoon isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Saturday. The greatest coverage will be across
central Nevada though activity looks to finally make its way into
Humboldt County as well. With the high pressure center shifting
west, upper flow will be very weak. This will result in slow storm
motions of around 10 mph and allow for better opportunity for
wetting rains (rain totals greater than 0.10), especially with
the latest progs indicating PWAT values between 0.75 and 0.85
across central Nevada, and as high as 0.90" to 1.00 in some
locales. Slightly drier across northern Nevada with PWATs progged
between 0.50" and 0.75" resulting in dry thunderstorms being more
prevalent. Overall, the biggest threats will be lightning and
gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow winds with gusts 45+ mph
possible. Strong storms may also create localized minor flooding
across central Nevada. Otherwise surface winds will again be
generally light with some gusts around 20 to 25 mph in the
afternoon. Look for activity to again weaken and dissipate thru
the evening and skies to clear overnight.

Daytime high temperatures will be warm and in the upper 80s to
upper 90s with low 100s becoming more widespread across Humboldt
County. Overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s are expected with
the exception being the Wendover area where mid 70s are forecast.
Heat products have been issued across most of Northern Nevada,
valid Saturday thru Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

Heat risk and afternoon convective chances continue to dominate
the long term forecast in response to the large high pressure
system entrenched across the western CONUS on Sunday. The dome of
high pressure will remain in place until Wednesday when a large
upper level trough to the northwest will sweep southeastward into
the Pacific NW and begin to push the ridge to the east-southeast.
By late Thursday night the center of high pressure will be located
well to the east of the area over the Four Corners region.

Monsoonal moisture continues to filter into the region from AZ
which have increased precipitable water values up into the
0.80-1.00 inch range for much of the CWA (excluding Humboldt
county) through Monday. This will continue the chances of
afternoon convective chances across central and northeastern
Nevada. Due to elevated values of PWat a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms is expected both afternoons. Tuesday will see
available moisture confined mainly to the central portion of
Nevada as the trough to the north begins to influence the region.
This will keep better convective chances over Nye and White Pine
counties but less so to the north. This trend will continue into
Wednesday which looks to be the driest day of the forecast period.
Moisture builds back into the region from the west on Thursday
and Friday reinvigorating convective chances for the northern
extent of the CWA by the end of the week.

Heat risk continues to be an issue for Humboldt county Sunday but
now also includes portions of Lander, Eureka and Elko counties as
well. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for Humboldt County
as highs in low 100s will continue through Wednesday afternoon.
Heat advisories for the other aforementioned locations also are in
place through Wednesday evening due to warmer than normal temps.
West Wendover and the low elevations of extreme eastern Elko
county will see warm overnight lows in upper 70s to near 80. Plan
to reduce time outdoors, drink plenty of water, and remain in air-
conditioned buildings. Heat-sensitive groups, such as the elderly,
young children, and those with chronic ailments may need
assistance to avoid heat-related illnesses. As the trough pushes
the persistent ridge further east by the end of the week, Friday
afternoon highs will cool back into the upper 80s and lower 90s
for the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected today. Mid level monsoonal
moisture will allow for a 10% to 30% chance for showers and
thunderstorms the remainder of the afternoon at KEKO, KELY, and
KTPH with a lesser chance for KBAM. Gusty outflow winds up to 40+
knots, blowing dust, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be
the primary threats. Storms are expected to weaken by the late
evening hours. Outside of storms, breezy winds from the W-NW at
10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Overnight winds
will calm somewhat over the region as showers and thunderstorms
diminish after sunset. Look for clouds and increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms from south to north across the CWA
during the day Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Robust upper ridge persists over the western
U.S. the next several days. Adequate moisture under the ridge
will allow for continued afternoon isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms across much of the forecast area thru early next
week with greater activity focused across central Nevada. Storm
modes will continue to be a mix of dry and wet with dry storms
more prevalent mid-day while wet storms become more probable
later in the afternoon and evening. As the high pressure center
migrates over the Great Basin today and tomorrow, mid level flow
will become very weak and storm motions very slow, approximately
around 5 knots. Otherwise surface gradient winds will be mostly
light with modest afternoon breezes though convective outflows of
45 mph or higher are possible with any thunderstorm activity. Do
not believe critical fire weather conditions will be met over the
next few days, though elevated risk primarily due to lightning and
gusty thunderstorm outflows will certainly be in place. A warming
trend will also continue as the upper level ridge persists over
the region. Widespread daytime high temperatures in the mid 90s or
hotter will be present by tomorrow with some locales reaching
into the mid 100s, particularly across zone 437. Heat products
have been issued across most of Northern Nevada, valid Saturday
thru Wednesday.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT
Wednesday Humboldt County.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday
Northern Elko County...Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County...Southeastern Elko County...Southwest Elko County.

&&

$$

92/99/99/92