Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
625 FXUS65 KLKN 052109 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 209 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 205 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 * Warming Trend starts today as high pressure returns. * High temperatures will rise into the low 90s to low 100s by Tuesday as lows reach the lower 50s to low 60s. * Near critical fire weather conditions possible for Tuesday afternoon for Central NV as SW winds pick up and Humidity drops. * Upper trough passing through the Pacific NW to bring in slightly cooler temperatures for northern NV Thursday. Heat returns Friday and Saturday as highs reach the upper 90s to 100s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 205 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The main weather features to watch for the next week will be an upper trough situated off the west coast and a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the desert SW. Unlike last week this upper low is not forecast to move any farther south than the Bay Area of Northern California. The ridge however will build SW into southern California effectively blocking any moisture flow from the south. That will leave Nevada under a dry southwesterly flow with surface winds being dictated by how close the trough and ridge get. Needless to sat a warming trend will commence this afternoon with the first round warn-up peaking Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. High temperatures look to rise into the low 90s to low 100s by Tuesday as night time low range in the low 50s to low 60s, which with the exception of West Wendover which will see lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, will help midi-gate potential heat headlines for the first half of the week. As for the upper low models show that it will make little headway through Wednesday of next week, what it will do is increase the SW winds across central Nevada for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. As such will need to watch for Fire weather concerns as afternoon winds of 10 to 20mph with gusts up to 30 mph will be possible, and with afternoon RH values below 10% near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible, especially for Tuesday afternoon. Good news is this upper trough will finally move through northern Nevada Thursday, bringing slightly cooler temps, but no moisture to speak of. After Thursday models agree on re-building the ridge over the lower Colorado river valley. This setup will bring slightly higher heights over Nevada, meaning even warmer temperatures will be possible over the area with high reaching the upper 90s to 100s Friday and Saturday of next week, and a return to possible heat headlines for next weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in high pressure ridge building in over the the Great Basin for the weekend trough the first half of next week leading to warmer temperatures and dry conditions. There is high confidence in the upper level forecast pattern that will keep an upper trough off the California coast through Wednesday. There is moderate confidence that the interaction of this trough and the upper ridge will lead to near critical to critical fire weather conditions for parts of central Nevada for the first half of the work week. Confidence is moderate to high that the upper level ridge will build back in over the great basin region, after the upper trough moves through Nevada Thursday. Leading to another warm-up for next weekend. The main deviation from the previous forecast was to increase winds and wind gusts for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday to match model trends. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours. Some breezy winds will be present, gusting up to 20KT at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry through the forecast as high pressure builds over the area. Fire conditions are currently expected to remain below critical thresholds, however winds look borderline in Central Nevada and may end up requiring fire weather headlines. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94