227
FXUS65 KLKN 202037
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
137 PM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures, relatively light winds,
and afternoon thunderstorms are expected across the region
through next Wednesday. Cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday
with diminishing thunderstorm activity. Dry next weekend with near
to slightly below normal temperatures along with gusty
southwesterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night. High pressure remains
anchored over NV through the weekend keeping temperatures 5 to 10
degrees above normal. Weak to moderate instability in combination
with mid-level moisture trapped under the ridge will produce
isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms
across most of the CWA both today and on Sunday. Winds remain
light this weekend which will result in slow moving storms.
Precipitable water values this afternoon range from around 0.65"
over Humboldt county and northern Elko county, up to around 0.90"
over most of central NV. Any storms that may develop today across
central NV (including most of Lander and Eureka counties) could
produce a tenth to a quarter inch or more of rain. Any storms
north of I-80 today would likely have lighter rain amounts.
Higher precipitable water values on Sunday with most locations at
0.80" to 1.00", which may result in moderate rains of a quarter
inch or more in any strong thunderstorms activity. Best chances
for thunderstorms capable of producing moderate rainfall on
Sunday would be across Lander and Eureka counties, along with the
western half of Elko county and into western White Pine county.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday

An upper level ridge will continue to bring warm temperatures
across the CWA for much of next week. Heat risk continues to be an
issue for Humboldt County, and portions of Lander, Eureka and
Elko Counties as well. Current heat products remain in effect
given the significant heat anticipated over the next few days.
Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture advects into and over the state,
bringing afternoon chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Probability starts out 10% to 30% Monday through Wednesday,
increasing up to 40% to 70% Thursday. A Pacific Northwest trough
pushes the persistent ridge east by the end of the week. Friday
afternoon highs will cool back into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Winds for the extended will be generally out of the southwest at 5
to 15 MPH with the occasional gust up to 30 MPH possible by next
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected today. Mid level monsoonal
moisture will allow for a 10% to 30% chance for showers and
thunderstorms across all terminals. A higher probability of 30% to
60% exist this afternoon and evening at KELY and along the US-50
corridor. Gusty outflow winds up to 40+ knots, blowing dust,
lightning, and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats. Should
a storm impact a terminal a brief reduction to MVFR to even IFR
levels may be possible. Outside of storms, light to breezy winds
from the N to NE at speeds 5-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots.
Storms are expected to weaken by the late evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through next Wednesday, high pressure
centered over Nevada will keep temperatures above normal and winds
relatively light, while instability and mid-level moisture will
produce afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. The
light winds will result in slower moving storms. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are developing across portions of central NV
early this afternoon, and are expected to expand northward later
this afternoon and early evening. The thunderstorm activity across
central NV will likely increase to scattered later this
afternoon. Most thunderstorm activity across central NV today is
expected to wet, with the potential for heavier storms to produce a
tenth to a quarter inch or more of rain. Northern NV zones this
afternoon will be drier, likely beginning as dry and transitioning
to wet by early evening. Storms will taper off later this evening
with dry and stable conditions overnight. On Sunday storms across
both northern and central NV will have more available moisture.
Northern NV zones should see a little more thunderstorms activity
on Sunday compared to this afternoon.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday Humboldt County.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday Northern Elko County...
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County...Southeastern
Elko County...Southwest Elko County.

&&

$$

96/90/90/96