Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
625 FXUS65 KLKN 290920 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 220 AM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 218 AM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025 * Warming trend through Monday * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern Nevada both Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon * Elevated to critical risk of wildfires in Central Nevada both Monday and Tuesday * Isolated, dry thunderstorms each afternoon in parts of Northern Nevada Monday through next Saturday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 218 AM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025 * Warming trend today through Monday * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern Nevada both Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon * Elevated to critical risk of wildfires in Central Nevada both Monday and Tuesday * Isolated, dry thunderstorms each afternoon in parts of Northern Nevada Monday through next Saturday WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Surface high pressure and upper-leve ridge aloft will peak in intensity Monday with high temperatures well above average in the mid to upper 90s for most locations. Those vulnerable to heat- related illnesses should limit exertion outdoors, and all should limit exertion during peak heating each afternoon Sunday through Tuesday, pushing exercise or work to the morning or evening, if possible. Highs decrease a few degrees as the ridge shifts eastward ahead of a closed upper low that will move onto the California Coast Tuesday. Highs continue to trend slightly cooler in the upper 80s and lower 90s through the middle and latter half of next week as the closed upper low moves overhead. This brings an uptick in moisture content, which will lead to isolated thunderstorms nearly every afternoon and evening, with greatest chances of 20-30% for thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday as the aforementioned closed low opens up into the main storm track with a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in heat through Tuesday, with lower confidence in exact placement of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Long range ensemble clusters are in good agreement through most of the upcoming workweek with the track of the closed low coming into better agreement more into south-central Nevada now. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Scattered to broken clouds with CIGs ranging from FL100 to FL180 will be present across northern and central NV today, primarily in the afternoon and evening. Afternoon breezes also present with gusts around 20 kts. Winds again subside thru the evening between 00Z and 01Z Monday with sky cover also dissipating. AMD NOT SKED for KELY due to visibility sensor issues. && .FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend as high pressure strengthens to our SE, and begins to interact with a upper trough off the California coast through the holiday week, bringing southerly to southeasterly flow over the region. While critical thresholds are not expected at this time, elevated fire weather conditions will continue due to minimum relative humidity values remaining near 10% to 15% and sustained winds of 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. An additional element will enter the picture beginning Monday thanks to the upper flow, There will be a 10-20% chance of isolated dry thunderstorms, evolving to a 50/50 mix of wet and dry thunderstorms as the week progresses. Expected coverage of these storms is expected to remain at isolated levels with the main hazards of a few cloud to ground lightning strikes, and gust erratic outflow wind gusts up to 45mph possible. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...84 FIRE WEATHER...98