979
FXUS65 KLKN 162141
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
241 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Rather expansive upper ridge will persist over the
western U.S. thru the forecast period. Adequate subtropical
moisture under the ridge will allow for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to be present across portions of the forecast area
into next week. A gradual warming trend will also be present.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Night

Synoptic set up is defined by a large upper ridge situated across
the western U.S. and Canada with high pressure centered over the
four corners area. Concurrently, an upper trof and area of low
pressure reside over Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. This produces
a broad region of south-southwesterly flow over the forecast
area, allowing for ample sub tropical moisture to move into the
forecast area. Latest progs continue to indicate PWAT values
between 0.50" and 0.75". This has resulted in diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, of which will weaken and
dissipate thru this evening with dry and fair weather expected by
the latter half of tonight under clearing skies. Overnight low
temperatures will mostly be in the 50s.

Overall, similar weather is expected for Wednesday with another
round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. That said, a
shortwave embedded in mean southwesterly flow will help drive
shower and thunderstorm activity to the eastern half of the
forecast area. Another mix of dry and wet storms is expected with
the main threats being lightning and gusty outflow winds of 40+
mph. Biggest sensible weather effect associated with the passing
shortwave as it skirts northwest Nevada will be increased gradient
winds. Humboldt County can expect afternoon gusts around 25 mph,
particularly across the western half of the County. Conditions
again become dry and fair Wednesday night. Look for daytime high
temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s with overnight lows in
the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday

Afternoon thunderstorm chances and the return of warm
temperatures this weekend are the main weather features of concern
Thursday through Tuesday. The high pressure system to the south
responsible for the monsoonal moisture over the area will build
back into the SW CONUS Thursday amplifying the upper level ridge
and transitioning flow to a more westerly course for northern
Nevada. By Sunday the continued amplification of the ridge axis
will re-orient upper level flow to the northwest. 500-mb vorticity
resides over the region during afternoon hours for virtually the
entirety of the forecast period specifically in central and
eastern portions of the CWA.

Afternoon precip chances will exist mainly for all counties save
for Humboldt on Thursday and will be more confined to east-central
Nevada and northeastern Elko county to close out the work week.
While chances for convection are better than 25% (35% for White
Pine and northern Nye counties), measurable QPF is minimal so dry
thunderstorms will be the main result. Saturday will hold precip
chances mainly to east-central Nevada over White Pine and Nye
counties before more widespread chances of convection return on
Sunday. As upper level flow transitions more westerly by the end
of the weekend this will inhibit widespread moisture over the
region by Monday confining convective chances to northeastern Elko
county.

In response to ridge amplification over the Silver State this
weekend high temperatures will rebound back into the upper 90s
and even low 100s for portions of Humboldt county by Sunday. This
will elevate heat risk this weekend to Major and even Extreme
conditions in isolated locations of the western CWA. Plan to take
action to reduce time outdoors, drink plenty of water, and remain
in air-conditioned buildings. This heat could begin to abate
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected today. Mid level
monsoonal moisture will allow for a 10% to 30% chance for showers
and thunderstorms this evening at KWMC, KEKO, KELY, and KBAM with
a slightly lesser chance for KTPH. Gusty outflow winds up to 40+
knots, blowing dust, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be
the primary threats. Storms are expected to weaken by the late
evening hours. Outside of storms, breezy winds from the W-SW at
5-10 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible at KELY and in and
around any thunderstorms that do occur.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The upper level ridge and high pressure center will
maintain their position over the four-corners region thru at
least the end of the week. This will allow for a modest south to
southwest flow to continue over the region with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing each afternoon
across much of the forecast area. Storm modes will be generally
mixed dry and wet as indicated by the latest moisture progs.
Winds will be mostly light with modest afternoon breezes though
convective outflows to 40+ mph are possible under any thunderstorm
activity. An exception however will be zone 437 where an embedded
short wave will produce afternoon breezes with gusts around 25
mph tomorrow afternoon, subsequently producing elevated fire
weather concerns given minimum RH values will concurrently be
less than 15%. Do not believe critical fire weather conditions
will be met at anytime thru the period though increased risk due
to lightning, thunderstorm outflows, low afternoon RH, and modest
breezes as noted will certainly be in place. A warming trend will
also continue as the upper level ridge persists over the western
U.S. and Canada. Temperatures widespread in the mid 90s or hotter
will be present by this weekend with some locales reaching into
the low 100s.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

92/99/99/92