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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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834 FXUS64 KLIX 192356 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 656 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Due to a deep upper level trough over the SE CONUS and a weak low pressure heading into central MS, a stationary front is lingering over the area. This is allowing for moisture from the Gulf to propagate into and making PWs range from 2-2.25 inch approaching up to 2.5 in Friday evening. With all this moisture, a good chance of storm development will continue over the next couple of days. The main issue with these storms will be the possibility of flooding as they are going to be most heavy with rainfall. A few of these storms have the potential to become severe. While it may feel like you`re swimming through the air, at least this means the heat index values are much lower this week compared to the previous two weeks. As actual temperatures range from the 70s through the next few days and upper 80s throughout the respective daytime, heat index values remain in the low to mid 90s, as opposed to the above 100 values we`ve been seeing earlier in the month. TH/BL && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 It`s basically a persistence forecast at this point due to stagnating upper level ridge over the western part of the CONUS and troughing just over us. So the usual daily diurnal rain/storm chances continues through next week with the usual afternoon storms on land and storms on the coast and the nearby waters in the morning. High PWs in excess of 2 in continue to pump in from the Gulf so these storms will continue to be very efficient rainmakers. With so many places having seen some rain, the flash flood potential has increased very slightly as soils get more moist. But we still remain in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall from WPC for the foreseeable future in the forecast period with the biggest concerns being our metro areas and places that seen repeated rounds of rain these past few days, and the highest chance on one day would be on Wednesday. Due to the relatively high PoP chances, have lowered the high temperatures respectively a bit but that will be very hit and miss too since it highly depends on how much one spot gets rain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Terminals currently VFR, although there have been a few brief periods of MVFR ceilings. Carried VCTS to start at KBTR with convection to their south, but should be able to drop that shortly. Current storms could reach KHUM around 02z or so, and will carry a TEMPO for a few hours there this evening. Overnight should see generally VFR conditions with the exception of KHUM and KMCB, where MVFR or lower conditions will be possible toward sunrise. At this time, do not anticipate the very low conditions that were observed at KMCB this morning. MVFR ceilings will return Saturday morning, and scattered TSRA are expected Saturday afternoon. For now, will go with VCTS for the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Wind wise, conditions remain benign for the coastal waters with a light roughly southerly wind of up to 10 knots possible. The only issue is the daily showers and storms which could have locally higher winds and waves. This is most likely in the early morning hours but some spots could have some later in the day into the afternoon. Waterspouts have been occuring in spots and will continue to be possible especially in the morning hours. -BL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 88 71 87 / 60 60 30 90 BTR 75 91 76 90 / 40 60 30 90 ASD 75 89 75 89 / 50 80 50 100 MSY 77 88 77 88 / 40 80 50 100 GPT 75 88 76 89 / 80 70 60 90 PQL 75 90 76 92 / 90 70 70 90 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TH LONG TERM....BL AVIATION...RW MARINE...BL