Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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285 FXUS64 KLIX 041151 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 651 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Happy 4th of July everyone. As you take part in your hot dog eating contest and maybe a few burgers along with tasty beverage to wash it down remember to try and find a few ways to stay cool today. Luckily conditions should be slightly less oppressive than yesterday which was less oppressive than the days prior. One other thing which will help keep the heat down some will be convection. Today we are already seeing isolated to widely scattered convection at 8z and these storms appear to be in the middle of the deeper moist airmass (TPW from GOES16 had 2.35 to 2.45"), in the instability ridge and lined up with weak LL convergence from Vermillion Bay to Hattiesburg. Convection will likely begin to taper off over the interior areas just before sunrise with most of the inland areas dry through much of the morning. The deeper moisture and LL convergence will slide very slowly to the northwest and could spark convection across the northwestern half/3rd of the CWA around midday/early afternoon but it looks like storms should real congeal around the river parishes across the area between BTR, HUM, and MSY. The heaviest rain appears to be in that area from mid afternoon through 00z and seems like it will be from the combination of the sea breeze, lake breeze and even a possible differential heating boundary from the Atchafalaya Basin. As some locations saw yesterday convection will be VERY efficient with warm rain processes occurring. This could quickly lead to locally heavy rain and add up quickly. Again convection may get started late morning/midday but those initial storms will be isolated in nature and that would allow most of the area to heat up with numerous locations seeing the heat index around 109 to 110. The heat advisory that was issued earlier still looks good and no changes were needed to it. Tomorrow is more interesting. The ridge that has been giving us this recent heat wave and steering Beryl towards the Yucatan will continue to slowly flatten out across the Gulf coast while the western periphery starts to slowly erode. Mid lvl hghts start to fall and cool some. Which would increase the convection potential but even more so looks to be the approach of a front in the afternoon. The combination of the front, improving mid lvls, very high moisture content (PWs abv 2.3"), a good bit of instability in place as we heat up into the lower to mid 90s we could see widespread showers and thunderstorms along the front. WPC has the area place under a Marginal Risk and can`t argue about that given the moisture content in place and likely efficient storms. Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain could occur through tomorrow. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Through the weekend rain chances will remain elevated as that front on Friday stalls over the area. As for Beryl models have come into fairly good agreement with it continuing to track to the WNW across the Yucatan and eventually into Mexico just south of Brownsville. The stalled boundary near or along our coasts should provide a nice focus for additional storms on Saturday and if it hasn`t washed out by Sunday that will lead to more afternoon storms. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with highs in the lower 90s with a few mid 90s. The heat index could be borderline Advisory criteria. Heading into next week the weakness on the west side of the ridge should allow Beryl to curve more to northwest this weekend and then north across TX early next week. This will have no impact on our area and the ridge to our east will start to build in back across the southeastern CONUS and the north-central and northeast Gulf coasts. Moisture will still be abundant and daily afternoon convection can be expected. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Most terminals are in VFR status but MCB has been dealing with IFR and recently LIFR cigs...dropping down to 200 ft. MCB has also been dealing with reduced vsbys but only down to 4sm MVFR. This should improve at MCB in the next hours or so as we heat up but convection is expected to impact most if not all terminals with BTR, MCB, HUM, and possibly HDC seeing the greatest impacts first between 17 and 22z. MSY, NEW, and ASD likely see the bulf of their impacts during the afternoon hours possibly after 19/20z. Convection then could linger at those sites along with HUM till 01/02z and then most storms should either have already dissipated or quickly dissipating. Isolated convection may begin to redevelop after 6z along the tidal lakes and MS Sound which could be close emough to impact MSY, NEW, and GPT. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High pressure remains in control across the area and should remain in place through the remainder of the workweek. Generally benign conditions will continue through Friday outside of any thunderstorm. We continue to watch Beryl as it approaches the Yucatan and then into the southwestern Gulk by Saturday. It still looks like only very minimal indirect impacts are expected with slightly higher seas from a building swell due to Beryl. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 75 91 73 / 80 20 80 40 BTR 94 79 95 78 / 80 20 70 30 ASD 94 78 94 78 / 80 30 70 30 MSY 92 80 94 80 / 80 40 70 20 GPT 91 78 92 78 / 70 30 70 40 PQL 94 78 95 77 / 70 30 70 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....CAB AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB